The impending energy crisis is far greater than "peak oil" alone
might suggest (1). In 2008 the UK population was approximately 60 million
and the nation consumed 268,628 thousand tonnes of oil equivalent (TTOE)
of energy, of which 57% was imported (2, 3). Fossil fuel and oil comprised
93% and 34% total energy consumed respectively. The UK is legally obliged
to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 80% by 2050, when its
population could well be 75 million (4, 5). Demographic changes alone will
greatly challenge UK healthcare provision over the next 40 years (6).
The author has attempted to calculate UK energy demand and
availability in 2050 (7). Highly ambitious, and arguably unrealistic,
efficiency gains might cut total UK energy consumption by 30%, to 187,784
TTOE. However, international oil, natural gas and coal reserves are
projected to deplete within 40, 60 and 150 years respectively (8). Global
demand for remaining fossil fuels, particularly by developing countries,
will massively increase over coming decades.
Energy yield per tonne of CO2 emitted is greater for natural gas than
any other fossil fuel, and is one order of magnitude greater than for
biofuels. Should the UK import sufficient natural gas in 2050, it could
generate 39,520 TTOE annually whilst staying within permitted CO2 emission
limits. CO2 emissions from any other combustion process would have to be
captured at source for deep underground storage in perpetuity using
unproven technology. Such "carbon capture and storage" (CCS) might itself
consume up to 40% the energy released by the combustion processes (9, 10).
Sufficient large onshore and offshore wind turbines to generate
maximum power outputs of 30GW and 80GW respectively would be ambitious
targets for 2050. With optimistic average loads of 30% and 40% (11), these
would generate 6,778 and 24,102 TTOE annually in a highly erratic manner
that bore no relation to societal energy demand, thereby presenting
significant challenges that have not yet been resolved (12). Much of this
energy might be wasted. UK geothermal and hydroelectric resources might
provide annual yields of 763 and 1,133 TTOE (13). There would be no scope
for biofuel combustion if natural gas was used to meet the entire CO2
emissions limit. Technology for harvesting energy from marine tides and
waves is presently so underdeveloped that no realistic figure can be
ascribed for annual yields from these sources in 2050. However, suppose
they jointly matched yields from wind technology within 40 years, an
assumption for which there is presently no justification, total annual
energy harvest from all renewable sources thus far mentioned would be
63,566 TTOE. If the UK's five million wealthiest households installed
sufficient solar photovoltaic and micro-wind turbine technology to ensure
their own energy independence and security, this might remove just 2,997
TTOE from the 2050 national energy demand.
Nuclear fusion is not yet a realistic commercial prospect. The 10
nuclear fission power stations proposed by the last government would
collectively generate 12,000 TTOE per annum whilst leaving future
generations a legacy of radioactive waste, much of which would consume
energy through its long-term need for active cooling.
If the UK does not adopt CCS technology, then fossil fuel combustion,
renewable energy and nuclear fission might provide an optimistic 115,086
TTOE per annum in 2050, just 61% a barely plausible diminished energy
demand. Society as we presently know it will not survive. Whilst CCS might
allow the UK to meet all or some of this energy deficit, it will deplete
remaining fossil fuel reserves at a much faster rate whilst providing no
guarantee that CO2 buried deep underground will stay there. The author
believes that massive energy deficits and greatly increased energy prices
will present the entire population of the developed world with
unimaginable threats to health and security over the next half century.
1. Raffle, A. (2010) Oil, health and health care. BMJ 341: 617-618.
6. Chambers, J. Projections regarding the future demand for
Palliative Care, with particular regard to Thames Valley Cancer Network.
[online] available from <http://www.jchambers-cv.info> [18 July
2010]
7. Chambers, J. (2009) Strategy 8050. [online] M.Sc. Submission.
Coventry University. available from <http://www.jchambers-cv.info>
[18 July 2010]
8. Saito, S. (2010) 'Role of nuclear energy to a future society of
shortage of energy
resources and global warming.' Journal of Nuclear Materials [online] 398:
1-9.
available from
<http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6TXN-4XGBG60
-
2&_user=10&_coverDate=03%2F31%2F2010&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search
&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1437625979&_rerunOrigin=google
&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=e7a0d473cbe
8c1f68a93c4f5274b628a> [18 July 2010]
9. Abanades, J., Akai, M. Benson, S. et al. (2005) IPCC Special
Report Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage [online] available from
<http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/specialreports/
srccs/srccs_summaryforpolicymakers.pdf> [18 July 2010]
10. Rochon, E. (Lead author) (2008) False Hope. Why carbon capture
and storage won't save the climate. Amsterdam: Greenpeace International.
[online] available from
<http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/planet-
2/report/2008/5/false-hope.pdf> [18 July 2010]
Rapid Response:
Peak Energy
The impending energy crisis is far greater than "peak oil" alone
might suggest (1). In 2008 the UK population was approximately 60 million
and the nation consumed 268,628 thousand tonnes of oil equivalent (TTOE)
of energy, of which 57% was imported (2, 3). Fossil fuel and oil comprised
93% and 34% total energy consumed respectively. The UK is legally obliged
to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 80% by 2050, when its
population could well be 75 million (4, 5). Demographic changes alone will
greatly challenge UK healthcare provision over the next 40 years (6).
The author has attempted to calculate UK energy demand and
availability in 2050 (7). Highly ambitious, and arguably unrealistic,
efficiency gains might cut total UK energy consumption by 30%, to 187,784
TTOE. However, international oil, natural gas and coal reserves are
projected to deplete within 40, 60 and 150 years respectively (8). Global
demand for remaining fossil fuels, particularly by developing countries,
will massively increase over coming decades.
Energy yield per tonne of CO2 emitted is greater for natural gas than
any other fossil fuel, and is one order of magnitude greater than for
biofuels. Should the UK import sufficient natural gas in 2050, it could
generate 39,520 TTOE annually whilst staying within permitted CO2 emission
limits. CO2 emissions from any other combustion process would have to be
captured at source for deep underground storage in perpetuity using
unproven technology. Such "carbon capture and storage" (CCS) might itself
consume up to 40% the energy released by the combustion processes (9, 10).
Sufficient large onshore and offshore wind turbines to generate
maximum power outputs of 30GW and 80GW respectively would be ambitious
targets for 2050. With optimistic average loads of 30% and 40% (11), these
would generate 6,778 and 24,102 TTOE annually in a highly erratic manner
that bore no relation to societal energy demand, thereby presenting
significant challenges that have not yet been resolved (12). Much of this
energy might be wasted. UK geothermal and hydroelectric resources might
provide annual yields of 763 and 1,133 TTOE (13). There would be no scope
for biofuel combustion if natural gas was used to meet the entire CO2
emissions limit. Technology for harvesting energy from marine tides and
waves is presently so underdeveloped that no realistic figure can be
ascribed for annual yields from these sources in 2050. However, suppose
they jointly matched yields from wind technology within 40 years, an
assumption for which there is presently no justification, total annual
energy harvest from all renewable sources thus far mentioned would be
63,566 TTOE. If the UK's five million wealthiest households installed
sufficient solar photovoltaic and micro-wind turbine technology to ensure
their own energy independence and security, this might remove just 2,997
TTOE from the 2050 national energy demand.
Nuclear fusion is not yet a realistic commercial prospect. The 10
nuclear fission power stations proposed by the last government would
collectively generate 12,000 TTOE per annum whilst leaving future
generations a legacy of radioactive waste, much of which would consume
energy through its long-term need for active cooling.
If the UK does not adopt CCS technology, then fossil fuel combustion,
renewable energy and nuclear fission might provide an optimistic 115,086
TTOE per annum in 2050, just 61% a barely plausible diminished energy
demand. Society as we presently know it will not survive. Whilst CCS might
allow the UK to meet all or some of this energy deficit, it will deplete
remaining fossil fuel reserves at a much faster rate whilst providing no
guarantee that CO2 buried deep underground will stay there. The author
believes that massive energy deficits and greatly increased energy prices
will present the entire population of the developed world with
unimaginable threats to health and security over the next half century.
1. Raffle, A. (2010) Oil, health and health care. BMJ 341: 617-618.
2. ONS (2010a) Mid Year Population Estimates 2008: 13/05/10. [online]
available from
<http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/product.asp?vlnk=15106> [18
July 2010]
3. DECC (2010) 1.1 Aggregate energy balance 2008. [online] available
from
<http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/statistics/source/total/dukes1_1-
1_3.xls> [18
July 2010]
4. Great Britain Parliament (2008) Climate Change Act 2008. [Act of
Parliament]
London: HMSO [online] available from
<http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2008/pdf/ukpga_20080027_en.pdf.>
[18 July 2010]
5. ONS (2009) Statistical Bulletin. National population projections,
2008-based. [online] available from
<http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/pproj1009.pdf> [18 July 2010]
6. Chambers, J. Projections regarding the future demand for
Palliative Care, with particular regard to Thames Valley Cancer Network.
[online] available from <http://www.jchambers-cv.info> [18 July
2010]
7. Chambers, J. (2009) Strategy 8050. [online] M.Sc. Submission.
Coventry University. available from <http://www.jchambers-cv.info>
[18 July 2010]
8. Saito, S. (2010) 'Role of nuclear energy to a future society of
shortage of energy
resources and global warming.' Journal of Nuclear Materials [online] 398:
1-9.
available from
<http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6TXN-4XGBG60
-
2&_user=10&_coverDate=03%2F31%2F2010&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search
&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1437625979&_rerunOrigin=google
&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=e7a0d473cbe
8c1f68a93c4f5274b628a> [18 July 2010]
9. Abanades, J., Akai, M. Benson, S. et al. (2005) IPCC Special
Report Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage [online] available from
<http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/specialreports/
srccs/srccs_summaryforpolicymakers.pdf> [18 July 2010]
10. Rochon, E. (Lead author) (2008) False Hope. Why carbon capture
and storage won't save the climate. Amsterdam: Greenpeace International.
[online] available from
<http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/planet-
2/report/2008/5/false-hope.pdf> [18 July 2010]
11. DECC (2009c) Capacity of, and electricity generated from,
renewable sources.
[online] available from
<http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/statistics/source/renewables/dukes7_4...
[18
July 2010]
12. EON Netz (2005) Wind Reports. [online] available from
<http://www.windaction.org/?module=uploads&func=download&fileId=232>
[18
July 2010]
13. BIS (2009) Hydroelectric: Current UK Use. [online] available from
<http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.berr.gov.uk/energ...
renewables/explained/hydroelectric/current-use/page17481.html> [18 July
2010]
Competing interests: I have returned to University on a part-time basis to study Environmental and Climate Change.