Intended for healthcare professionals

Analysis

Calibrated response to emerging infections

BMJ 2009; 339 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.b3471 (Published 03 September 2009) Cite this as: BMJ 2009;339:b3471

Yes, but....

I wonder whether Peter Doshi apreciates that employing a measured
approach to such events could result in frustrating pharmaceutical
industry growth targets? We might get a different view of all this if we
looked at the financial models rather than the medical ones.

For instance, a report from PriceWaterhouseCoopers last year
envisaged a pharmaceutical industry in 2020 which is more than double the
size of the present global industry, in which the primary shift of focus
is from "treatment to prevention"[1]. This is a lot of prevention.

Here are two other interesting financial reports: 'Kids' vaccine
market set to quadruple'[2] from November 2007 which projects a
quadrupling of the juvenile vaccine market over the period of a decade,
and the more recent 'New report forecasts more than doubling of vaccine
sales by 2014'[3].

Presently in the UK we already administer 25 vaccines by 13 months of
age[4] so you might have thought that the room for expansion was limited.

I believe there is an ethical imperative at this juncture to stand
back and ask what is happening, and why?

[1] PriceWaterhouseCooper, 'Pharma2020: Which path will you take?'

[2] http://www.drugresearcher.com/Research-management/Kids-vaccine-
market-set-to-quadruple

[3] http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-report-forecasts-more-than-
doubling-of-vaccine-sales-by-2013

[4]

http://www.immunisation.nhs.uk/Immunisation_schedule/Full_immunisation_s...

Competing interests:
None declared

Competing interests: No competing interests

07 September 2009
John Stone
Contributing editor: Age of Autism
London N22