Intended for healthcare professionals

Clinical Review

Mumps and the UK epidemic 2005

BMJ 2005; 330 doi: (Published 12 May 2005) Cite this as: BMJ 2005;330:1132

Rubella Scares - Demonstrating the Figures are False

Dear Sir,

False Government Rubella Scare
Stories - Demonstrating the Figures are False

The USA has to date vaccinated
approximately 120 million children with rubella vaccine, either
monovalent or in MMR.
[1]The contributions of
Peter Flegg, Consultant physician, Blackpool and Tony
Floyd, Medical Student, Newcastle University

[2], [3]
help to
provide more proof this has been done on the basis of
flawed and inflated

bearing no relation to actual cases
and promulgated by
government and those who speak for it

We can
calculate an initial ceiling beyond which we know the numbers of US
congenital rubella syndrome (CRS)
cases could not go.
Demonstrating this
initial ceiling is an order of magnitude or more higher than the real
figure is also not
difficult. The
more accurate
calculation remains
one based on real
figures for an entire US
state in 1964, and
particularly a state served by Johns Hopkins. [4]

We are
told [2]
a paper cites 17 CRS cases from 6000
pregnancies in 11 US hospitals in 1964. If we assume the number
of US
hospitals were roughly similar in 1964 to 1980, the 1980 figure is 7156
US hospitals

[5]. This provides the starting point of an 11,000 ceiling for US
CRS cases.

1000 of these 7156 hospitals were psychiatric units. Further, of
the remainder, not all US hospitals have now or had in 1964 maternity
units. One might reasonably expect less than half to have
had. Additionally, not all hospitals are the same size. The
1980 figures show then they ranged in size from
6 beds to over 500
[5] This also
shows overall substantial variations in local populations
served by hospitals of substantially varying sizes. And
then there would be regional variations in incidence of CRS.

There were also substantially fewer hospitals with the higher numbers
of beds. It would also be a reasonable assumption that the 11
hospitals cited as having 17 CRS cases were of the larger size with
maternity units as it is more likely researchers would concentrate on
the larger bed size hospitals with substantial maternity units.
Accordingly, it can be easily seen that the numbers of CRS cases in the
US would be bound to be vastly lower than 11,000 and likely by an order
of magnitude or more. This is also without taking into account
whether it is
realistic to assume
all 1963/4 US pregnancies received ante-natal care in hospital rather
than with local general practice or mid-wifery practices and how many
could, in 1964 afford much ante-natal care? It may have been that
the 6000 cases from 11 hospitals were only
those cases where hospital care was necessary.

What is
indisputably bizarre about the alleged 1964 rubella 'pandemic'
is that for something so allegedly serious, with such allegedly serious
outcomes and for so
many, is that the authorities feel the need to overstate the
true figures. Rubella
vaccination is motivated by government desire to save money, not to
protect children.

There is
also something seriously wrong in the world of 'professional' medicine
when a student in a
medical school will not agree 300,000 US
CRS cases in 1964 is a figure bearing no relation to


email Clifford
Miller substitute '@' where it says
"insert an 'at'
sign" in this email address:

an 'at' sign"

[1] This figure
assumes 4 million per annum birth rate since the 1969
introduction of rubella vaccine and 80% vaccination coverage over that

[2] Re:
False Government Rubella Scare Stories - Now 300,000 Congenital Rubella
30th June 2005 - Peter Flegg

[3] Re:
The Cost of a Rubella Outbreak Would be More than Just Financial
June 2005 Tony Floyd

Government Rubella Scare Stories - Only 20,000 Percent Overstated
June 2005
- Clifford Miller


Competing interests:
None declared

Competing interests: No competing interests

11 August 2005
Clifford G. Miller
Lawyer, graduate physicist, former university examining lecturer in law