The report by Wilkinson et al (1) that economic deprivation is not a
predictor of winter mortality echoes a finding we made in 2001 that the
social class gap in hospital admissions is narrower in winter (2)
In our paper we discussed a number of possible explanations - for
example that winter excess morbidity and mortality might result not from
increased mortality and morbidity in winter but reduced morbidity and
mortality in summer, which might be experienced most by those with the
resources to use leisure opportunities or protect themselves from the
effects of heat-waves. However we did say that we thought our data was
probably wrong. It was the preparatory study result only and was the
opposite of what we expected. (We only published it out of scientific
integrity.)
We fully expected a better larger study to refute our finding but
instead it has been supported. This is a challenging intellectual
conundrum. The idea that poverty is not a predictor of the likelihood of
succumbing to the consequences of ambient cold is so counterintuitive that
it seems hard to believe.
Rapid Response:
Study conundrum
The report by Wilkinson et al (1) that economic deprivation is not a
predictor of winter mortality echoes a finding we made in 2001 that the
social class gap in hospital admissions is narrower in winter (2)
In our paper we discussed a number of possible explanations - for
example that winter excess morbidity and mortality might result not from
increased mortality and morbidity in winter but reduced morbidity and
mortality in summer, which might be experienced most by those with the
resources to use leisure opportunities or protect themselves from the
effects of heat-waves. However we did say that we thought our data was
probably wrong. It was the preparatory study result only and was the
opposite of what we expected. (We only published it out of scientific
integrity.)
We fully expected a better larger study to refute our finding but
instead it has been supported. This is a challenging intellectual
conundrum. The idea that poverty is not a predictor of the likelihood of
succumbing to the consequences of ambient cold is so counterintuitive that
it seems hard to believe.
Competing interests:
None declared
Competing interests: No competing interests