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NHS is facing one its “bleakest” winters after worst ever performance on key targets

BMJ 2019; 367 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l6551 (Published 15 November 2019) Cite this as: BMJ 2019;367:l6551
  1. Gareth Iacobucci
  1. The BMJ

Doctors have been warned that the NHS faces a “bleak” winter, as the latest figures showed the worst ever performance on key targets on waiting times. In October only 83.6% of patients at all types of emergency department and just 74.5% in major A&E departments were seen within four hours, against the target of 95%, show the official figures from NHS England.1

This was the lowest level since the target was introduced in 2004 and amounts to a sixth of patients waiting more than four hours. The number of people waiting on trolleys because no beds were available reached 80 000 last month.

In September a record 4.42 million people were waiting for routine elective care. Just under 85% waited less than 18 weeks, the worst performance against the 92% target since it was introduced in 2012. And also in September 76.9% of patients with cancer started treatment within 62 days after an urgent referral by their GP, below the target of 85%.

Experts warned that NHS performance could worsen further if the usual seasonal trends continued.

“The next government will immediately be faced with one of the bleakest winters in the NHS’s history,” said John Appleby, chief economist at the health think tank the Nuffield Trust.

Katherine Henderson, president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, said that the figures were “a new low” and “should be a source of shame for politicians.” She added, “The risk is that this is ignored—ignoring the human stories behind the numbers.”

The BMA’s chair of council, Chaand Nagpaul, said that the figures were “shocking” and “a catastrophe for the NHS.” He said, “The next government must seriously back the NHS in both the short and long term, with more funding, more staff, and improved facilities comparable to other European nations.”

The president of the Royal College of Surgeons of England, Derek Alderson, said that the figures “demonstrate the urgent need for a comprehensive plan to cut waiting times in the NHS.”

And Saffron Cordery, deputy chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents NHS trusts, said the figures “paint a bleak picture” ahead of winter. “NHS staff have been working flat out all year round, but no matter how hard they work, the health and care system is not able to keep pace with the demands placed on it,” she said. “If we are going to turn this around we need investment in facilities and equipment in hospitals and in the community.”

An NHS spokesperson said, “While NHS staff are looking after a markedly higher number of older and sicker patients, a higher number of patients are being seen quickly than a year ago. While hospitals will be opening more beds over the coming weeks, the public also have a role to play going into winter and can help doctors, nurses, and other staff by getting their flu jab, and by using the NHS 111 phone or online service as a first port of call for non-emergencies.”