Validation of a scoring tool to predict drug-resistant pathogens in hospitalised pneumonia patients

Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 2013 May;17(5):704-9. doi: 10.5588/ijtld.12.0723.

Abstract

Background: Health care-associated pneumonia (HCAP) affects a heterogeneous group of patients in frequent contact with health care systems. However, HCAP criteria poorly predict infection with drug-resistant (DR) pathogens.

Objective: To validate our previously reported risk-scoring model (predictive of DR pathogen infection) in patients admitted to hospital with pneumonia.

Design: We evaluated 580 patients admitted with culture-positive bacterial pneumonia. We identified risk factors, evaluated the risk-scoring model's capacity to predict infection by DR pathogens and compared the model's diagnostic accuracy with that of current HCAP criteria.

Results: DR pathogens were observed in 227/580 patients (39.1%). Of 269 HCAP patients, 153 (56.9%) were infected with DR pathogens. Overtreatment was more common in HCAP than in community-acquired pneumonia (58.7% vs. 41.2%, P < 0.001). Recent hospitalisation, admission from a long-term care facility, recent antibiotic treatment and tube feeding were independently associated with DR pathogens. For pathogen prediction, the risk-scoring model showed better diagnostic accuracy than HCAP criteria (area under receiver operating-characteristic curve = 0.723 vs. 0.673, P < 0.001).

Conclusion: According to current HCAP criteria, half of the HCAP patients were treated unnecessarily with broad-spectrum antibiotics. Risk scoring by stratifying risk factors could improve the identification of patients likely to be infected with DR pathogens.

Publication types

  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Anti-Bacterial Agents / therapeutic use*
  • Area Under Curve
  • Chi-Square Distribution
  • Cross Infection / diagnosis
  • Cross Infection / drug therapy*
  • Cross Infection / microbiology*
  • Cross Infection / transmission
  • Decision Support Techniques*
  • Drug Resistance, Bacterial*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Inpatients*
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Microbial Sensitivity Tests
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Pneumonia, Bacterial / diagnosis
  • Pneumonia, Bacterial / drug therapy*
  • Pneumonia, Bacterial / microbiology*
  • Pneumonia, Bacterial / transmission
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • ROC Curve
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Treatment Failure
  • Unnecessary Procedures

Substances

  • Anti-Bacterial Agents