Intended for healthcare professionals


Global life expectancy to increase by almost five years by 2050, study predicts

BMJ 2024; 385 doi: (Published 20 May 2024) Cite this as: BMJ 2024;385:q1126
  1. Jacqui Wise
  1. Kent

Globally, life expectancy is forecast to improve between 2022 and 2050, with a continuing shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs) towards non-communicable diseases (NCDs).1

The Global Burden of Disease study, published in the Lancet, predicts that the proportion of deaths and disability adjusted life years from NCDs will increase substantially in most locations in the next generation. This shift reflects population ageing, improved prevention and treatment options for many CMNN diseases, and rising rates of obesity and metabolic disorders.

As the disease burden shifts, the researchers forecast that life expectancy will continue to increase, from 73.6 years (95% uncertainty interval 72.7 to 74.4) in 2022 to 78.2 years (75.2 …

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