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Analysis Covid Inquiry

How covid-19 spreads: narratives, counter narratives, and social dramas

BMJ 2022; 378 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2022-069940 (Published 31 August 2022) Cite this as: BMJ 2022;378:e069940

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COVID-19 Pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the unsettled narratives: Time to be guided by the correct science to inform appropriate precautionary interventions for the pandemic control

Dear Editor

The ‘COVID-19 Pandemic’ remains an ‘Unprecedented Ravaging 21st Century Scourge’ defying, for several reasons, ‘Pandemic Interventions’; recent ‘Communication’[1] is quite intriguing re: ‘Unsettled SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Narratives’ (‘Droplets-based Transmission’-‘Airborne/ Aerosols-based Transmission’). The ‘Airborne Transmission’ was recently revisited-highlighted in ‘Communications’[2-16] with critical discourse of current ‘COVID-19 Pandemic Control Interventions’.

This ‘Communication’[1] is very incisive in critically distilling the ‘Science’-‘Politics’-‘Ideology’ of ‘SARS-CoV-2 Transmission’-‘Public Health Control Interventions’. The ‘COVID-19 Pandemic Chameleonic Reality’[16,17] is compounded by the ‘Flip-flop SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Narratives’[1] Reportedly, ‘Pointers’ to ‘Flip-flop Narratives’ by several ‘Regulatory National/ World Authorities’ exist re: ‘Proclaimed SARS-CoV-2 Airborne Transmission’ but with ‘Preferred ‘Droplets Transmission’-guided Policy Pronouncements’ and related ‘Predominant Public Health Precautionary Measures’-consequent ‘Inappropriate Interventions’.

The WHO, for instance, reportedly declared at the outset (11/2/20) ‘SARS-CoV-2 Airborne Transmission’[18] but only with a volte-face to uphold ‘Droplets Transmission’ later (28/3/20)[19,20]; reportedly overlooked the ‘Airborne Transmission’ for over 2 years[21]. Also, UK Policy-makers focused on ‘Droplets Transmission’, ignored ‘Airborne Transmission’ and neglect of ‘Indoor Air Quality Interventions’[22]. Some members of the UK Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) conjectured ‘Other Transmission Modes’ (18/2/20)[23]; therefore, ‘Airborne Transmission’ was ‘Posted’ (3/3/20) but later ‘Withdrawn’ (1/5/20): the ‘Flip-flop Transmission Narrative’[24].

The New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG) (9/1/20) reportedly adopted ‘Airborne Transmission’ with ‘High Consequence Infectious Diseases’/ recommended ‘Filtering Face-piece Respirators (FFP3) or Equivalents for Healthcare Staff caring for Suspected/ Confirmed COVID-19 Cases’[25]. The WHO (22/12/21) subsequently accepted ‘Airborne Transmission’-‘Aerosols Scientists Prevention Strategies’ including use of ‘N95 Masks for Patient Care’[26].The Aerosols Scientists disagreed with the ‘Droplets Transmission’ and wrote formally to the WHO (July 2020)[27,28]. Again, the Government Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens in early March 2020 proposed declassifying ‘COVID-19’ as ‘High Consequence Infectious Disease’[25]; why?

By not adopting the ‘Airborne Transmission Precautionary Interventions’-persistently implementing ‘Droplets Transmission-related Measures’, the UK reportedly may have experienced avoidable excess ‘COVID-19 Deaths’ including ‘Care Home Deaths’[29]. In contrast, Countries (e.g. Japan[30] and Hong Kong[31]) that adopted the ‘Airborne Transmission’ early in the ‘COVID-19 Pandemic’ and related ‘Appropriate Air Quality and other relevant Interventions’ had much less ‘COVID-19 Deaths’. CNN Broadcast today (15/9/22; about 1930Hrs WAT) highlighting a ‘Lancet Commission on COVID-19 Report’-‘Commission Chairman Interview’ described ‘COVID-19 Death Toll (>18m Deaths)’ a ‘Massive Global Failure’.

It is pertinent to highlight the discordant ‘COVID-19 Pandemic Precautionary Interventions’ as they relate to ‘Droplets Transmission’-‘Airborne/ Aerosols Transmission’. For ‘Droplets Transmission’, the ‘Particle is large-travels short distance-drops to the ground/ surfaces’ with ‘Precautionary Measures’ viz: Respiratory Hygiene-Surface Fomites Disinfection-Reduced Direct Contact-Social Distancing (1-2m)-Face-mask-Physical Barriers/ Screens-Respiratory Grade Facial Protection for Healthcare Staff involved with ‘Aerosols-Generating Procedures (AGPs)’ etc[1,27,32]; ‘Self-Contamination Control’. For ‘Airborne Transmission’, the ‘Particle is small-travels a much longer distance-stays longer in the air’ with ‘Precautionary Measures’ viz: Engineering Indoor Spaces Controls-Reduced Crowding/ Time Indoors-Increased Social Distancing (>2m)-Face-masks Indoors-More ‘Filtration/ Tightly Fitting Masks’-Reduced AGPs (Singing-Speaking-Exercising etc)-Respiratory Grade Facial Protection for Staff caring for Patients etc[1,27,32]; ‘Masks and Air Quality Control’.

‘Airborne Transmission’ is facilitated by ‘Super-spreader Events’-‘Triad’: ‘Poor Ventilation-Overcrowding-Vocalizations’[33]. The WHO ‘Infection Prevention and Control Research and Development Expert Group for COVID-19’ canvassed a ‘Situationally Airborne Transmission Narrative’; a subtle volte-face[34]. With ‘Droplets Transmission’, ‘Government Libertarianism’ allowed ‘Freedom/ Choice with less Enforcement of Interventions’ with poor ‘COVID-19 Pandemic Control’; ‘Masks for only ‘Asymptomatic if Tolerated’’ but ‘Asymptomatic Transmission’ supports ‘Airborne Transmission’[23]. Also, Laboratory Studies-World Case Studies-Computer-generated Models-‘Aerosols Scientists’ reinforced the ‘Airborne Transmission Narrative’[27,35-38].

The ’Flip-flop SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Narratives’ highlight, once again, the vulnerability of ‘Science’ to ‘Politics’ as the more rational ‘Airborne Narrative’ is reportedly submerged by the ‘Droplets Narrative’ owing to ‘Non-Evidence-based Dispositions’. The ‘Science’ of the ‘COVID-19 Pandemic Specifics’ should be shielded from ‘Politics’[39-45].

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Professor Charles Osayande Eregie,
MBBS, FWACP, FMCPaed, FRCPCH (UK), Cert. ORT (Oxford), MSc (Religious Education),
Professor of Child Health and Neonatology, University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria,
Consultant Paediatrician and Neonatologist, University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Benin City, Nigeria,
UNICEF-Trained BFHI Master Trainer,
ICDC-Trained in Code Implementation,
*Technical Expert/ Consultant on the FMOH-UNICEF-NAFDAC Code Implementation Project in Nigeria,
*No Competing Interests.

Competing interests: No competing interests

16 September 2022
CHARLES OSAYANDE EREGIE
MEDICAL DOCTOR
Professor of Child Health and Neonatology, University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria and Consultant Paediatrician and Neonatologist, University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Benin City, Nigeria
Institute of Child Health, University of Benin, PMB 1154, Benin City, Nigeria.