Climate, pandemic, and war: an uncontrolled multicrisis of existential proportions
BMJ 2022; 376 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.o689 (Published 17 March 2022) Cite this as: BMJ 2022;376:o689All rapid responses
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Dear Editor
We read with great interest the article: Climate, pandemic, and war: an uncontrolled multicrisis of existential proportions.
In February 2022, Putin started an undeclared war against Ukraine; in February 2022, 195 member governments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approved the last Report on climate change: a threat to human wellbeing and health of the planet. “This report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction,” said Hoesung Lee, Chair of the IPCC.
The world faces unavoidable multiple climate hazards over the next two decades with global warming of 1.5°C (2.7°F). Even “temporarily exceeding” this warming level will result in additional severe impacts, some of which will be irreversible. The Working Group II of IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) underlines the urgency for climate action by lowering emissions as soon as possible because the scientific evidence is unequivocal: climate change is a threat to human wellbeing and the health of the planet. Any further delay in concerted global action will miss a brief and rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future.
CONFLICT is among the serious risks for the society that will increase in case of inaction. The Report in Chapter 12 on Human Security concluded that some of the factors that increase the risk of violent conflict within states are sensitive to climate change, people living in places affected by violent conflict are particularly vulnerable, and that climate change will lead to new challenges to states and will increasingly shape both conditions of security and national security policies to climate change.
The evidence since The Working Group II of IPCC’s Five Assessment Report (AR5) has strengthened the evidence for these findings and allowed statements to be made on « DIRECT ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN INCREASED RISK of CONFLICT and CLIMATE CHANGE ».
Faced with so many deaths from the war that is killing thousands and displacing millions as a consequence of an illegal act of aggression, climate change now takes a back seat. However, this could be a serious mistake because parking our response to climate change can increase the risk of other conflicts.
As soon as fossil fuel industries realized that Putin would go to war with Ukraina they could have used all their powerful influence over most governments to pass the last Report on climate change in the background … and this did work: the media talked very little about the Report but they talked constantly about the war, the consequent shortage of Russian gas and the justified need of coal and gas use intensification with the need to temporarily put aside climate change.
In conclusion, war is running while new wars could be on the horizon if we ignore the consequences of inaction.
IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.
Competing interests: No competing interests
Dear Editor,
The global multicrisis demands our full attention and better control [1]. The labor productivity is growing while unemployment is increasing in many parts of the world. In the past, similar developments were interrupted by wars and pestilence. Today, scientifically based methods can be used to regulate the population size taking account of ecological and economical conditions in different regions.
Large projects could be accomplished to improve the quality of life of billions: irrigation systems, nuclear [2] and other energy sources as an alternative to fossil fuels. Hydroelectric power plants can be built on large rivers to produce hydrogen as eco-friendly energy carrier. New substances used in the industry, nutrition and medicine must be tested in large animal populations to achieve statistical significance and record rare outcomes. Such projects would create many jobs, being a reasonable alternative to militarism. Not only durable peace but also mutual trust is required for that. Unfortunately, trust can be abused while certain individuals and institutions are unreliable.
1. Abbasi K. Climate, pandemic, and war: an uncontrolled multicrisis of existential proportions. BMJ 2022;376:o689.
2. Jargin SV. Chernobyl consequences are coming. J Radiol Prot. 2022;42(1).
Competing interests: No competing interests
Climate, Pandemic and War: using complexity thinking to “multicrisis” and to make a better world.
Dear Editor
Kamran Abbasi says that we parked our response to climate change because of the pandemic and now park our response to both because of war (1). He adds leadership and healthcare, with the need to “multicrisis,” and describes simplifying complexity as the political game (1).
This highlights the importance of thinking complexity, especially in crises and to “multicrisis.” Shared features of complexity in complex global issues like climate change, the pandemic, war, leadership and healthcare mean that we do not need to park our responses, but can continue to learn and use complexity thinking to respond better to these and other complex issues, at the same time (2,3).
This is validated by the recognition of chaos and complexity as the science for such complexities in a complex world, as illustrated by the award of the 2021 Physics Nobel Prize for chaos and complexity science for climate change (4) and the 2003 Japan Prize for chaos and fractals as universal concepts in complex systems (5).
While our inability to “multicrisis” as Abbasi says, could be the most existential threat of all, our ability to learn and use a complexity thinking for such complex issues may benefit from using one fundamental response that applies to all. These crises are complex, dynamic, interrelated and interdependendent at different levels, and reflect complex dynamics in complex systems and processes, requiring a different approach and response.
The details in the responses will differ in time, place and circumstance, but they can all start with a complexity thinking and complexity approach as our best way to “multicrisis” against such existential threats.
To go further, we can start with heart, the ethic of concern for others and for all humanity, to respond to complex issues and crises, described in a book written after the devastation of the 2004 Tsunami – “Tsunami, Chaos and Global Heart,” subtitled – “using complexity science to rethink and make a better world” made available free online, which could return us to altruistic ideals addressing real world challenges and to avoid political games Abbasi mentions (3).
Our existential threat may thus not be just our failure to “multicrisis,” but failure to think complexity to “multicrisis” for multicrises like climate change, the pandemic, war, healthcare, leadership and others.
References
1. Abbasi K. Editorial. Climate, pandemic, and war: an uncontrolled multicrisis of existential proportions
BMJ 2022; 376:o689 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.o689 (Published 17 March 2022)
2. Rambihar VS, Rambihar SP, Rambihar VS Jr. Chaos Complexity Complex Systems Covid-19: 30 years teaching health professionals chaos and complexity. 10th International Conference on Complex Systems, NECSI 2020. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b68a4e4a2772c2a206180a1/t/5f1f12... (accessed 24 March, 2022)
3. Rambihar VS, Rambihar SP, Rambihar VS Jr. Tsunami Chaos and Global Heart: using complexity science to rethink and make a better world. 2005. Vashna Publications. Toronto, Canada.
http://www.femmefractal.com/FinalwebTsunamiBK12207.pdf (accessed 24 March, 2022).
4. Rambihar VS. Complexity thinking to stop climate disaster: validated by 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics for complex systems. BMJ 2021 Rapid Response https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2441/rr-3
(accessed 24 March, 2022).
5. Science and Technology of Complexity: Creation of universal concepts in complex systems -chaos and fractals. Laureates of the Japan Prize 2003. Japan prize Foundation. https://www.japanprize.jp/en/prize_past_2003_prize01.html (accessed 24 March, 2022).
Competing interests: No competing interests