Covid-19: “Freedom day” in England could lead to “significant third wave of hospitalisations and deaths,” modelling predicts

The government’s decision to lift all covid restrictions in England on 19 July could lead to “a significant third wave of hospitalisations and deaths,” modellers have projected.

Researchers at Imperial College London evaluated the impact of removing non-pharmaceutical interventions such as physical distancing and mask wearing on 19 July in a range of scenarios, including variable vaccine efficacy and people’s different behaviours.

The team noted uncertainty about the level of impact but concluded,1 “Across all transmissibility and vaccine effectiveness scenarios explored, we estimate that lifting restrictions on 19 July in the context of [the delta variant] could lead to a significant third wave of hospitalisations and deaths.”

On 12 July England’s health secretary, Sajid Javid, confirmed2 that the government would proceed with the removal of all mandatory restrictions including social distancing and mask wearing on 19 July, which ministers have dubbed “freedom day.” Javid insisted that all four government tests to trigger the removal of restrictions had been met, including that the NHS would not be put under unsustainable pressure by infection rates.

He told the Commons, “Cases are rising, propelled by the new, more transmissible delta variant. We could reach 100 000 cases a day later in the summer. Hospitalisations are also rising, with sustained growth over the past month—and once again, they will rise too.

“But we should be encouraged that hospitalisations are far lower than they were at this point during the previous wave. On the basis of the evidence in front of us, we do not believe that infection …