Covid-19: Hospital admissions and deaths could rise this summer, modellers warn
BMJ 2021; 373 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n923 (Published 07 April 2021) Cite this as: BMJ 2021;373:n923Read our latest coverage of the coronavirus outbreak
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Dear Editor
Any model that ignores fundamental human physiology is deeply flawed. In summer the mean population level of serum 25(OH)D rises from ca 50 to ca 70 nmol/L. This is due to incidental solar D3 production in skin. Many studies show this rise in D3 promotes innate immunity such that covid-19 is less severe and death rates plunge. This is why deaths from C-19 fell dramatically last summer.
Failure to recognise D3's seasonality is going to lead to a disaster. SAGE and its advisors will assume on the basis of falling pcr tests, cases and deaths that the vaccination programme is working admirably, even against all new variants. Come the end of solar D3 production in September cases will rise in October onwards, including cases of dangerous new variants that are less sensitive to vaccine. The danger in epidemiologists remaining ignorant of D3 physiology and innate immunity comes from the twin facts that serum 25(OH)D rises in summer and its stimulation of innate immunity promotes produciton of anti-microbial peptides ( eg LL37, defensins ) that lyse the envelope and inactivate ALL VIRUS VARIANTS alike. Vaccines do not do that.
Modelling that fails to embrace D3 seasonality is not only wrong, it is dangerously wrong.
I am a member of a UK-based, but international, D3 Campaign Group and I invite the authors to learn about D3 by contacting me.
Competing interests: No competing interests
Re: Covid-19: Hospital admissions and deaths could rise this summer, modellers warn
Dear Editor
To anticipate an increase in Covid-19 deaths in the summer might make sense to mathematicians, but not to medical scientists. We know that there is an annual cycle of deaths from respiratory infections and many other conditions, deaths high in the vitamin D deficiency season (ie winter) and low in the vitamin D production season (ie summer). This was demonstrated by Covid-19 dramatically in 2020 and there is no biological reason why 2021 should be uniquely different. Please moderate fear tactics.
Competing interests: No competing interests