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Covid-19: Hospital admissions and deaths could rise this summer, modellers warn

BMJ 2021; 373 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n923 (Published 07 April 2021) Cite this as: BMJ 2021;373:n923

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  1. Ingrid Torjesen
  1. London

The later stages of the UK government’s roadmap out of lockdown are “highly likely” to cause a surge of covid-19 infections, hospital admissions, and deaths this summer, suggests modelling from three groups of scientists considered by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage).

SPI-M-O, Sage’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Operational) subgroup, reviewed modelling from Imperial College London, the University of Warwick, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. It concluded that any resurgence in hospital admissions and deaths after reopening non-essential retail, hairdressers, gyms, and outdoor hospitality from 12 April was “highly unlikely to put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.”1234

But the return of indoor socialising, the reopening of indoor hospitality including cinemas, theatres, and concert halls (stage 3) …

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