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Covid-19: Study claims real global deaths are twice official figures

BMJ 2021; 373 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n1188 (Published 10 May 2021) Cite this as: BMJ 2021;373:n1188

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  1. Owen Dyer
  1. Montreal

Global deaths from covid-19 are not 3.27 million, as official figures suggest, but 6.93 million up to 3 May, a new analysis based on changes in overall mortality claims.1

The virus is claiming about 33 000 lives a day around the world, more than twice reported figures, according to the study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. The study predicts that the pandemic’s true overall toll will reach 9.43 million deaths by 1 September.2

In the UK, the researchers estimated, the true covid death toll up to May 2021 was not 150 519 as officially reported, but 209 661. They estimated the true US death toll at 905 289, compared with an official figure of 574 043.

The institute predicts a further 44 000 US deaths by September,3 and only 750 deaths in the UK,4 because of its lower rate of vaccine refusal. India is forecast to lose a further 842 000 people …

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