Should we continue covid-19 suppression measures based on a transmission model that ignored pre-existing human immunity?BMJ 2020; 371 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3927 (Published 13 October 2020) Cite this as: BMJ 2020;371:m3927
- Angela Spelsberg, epidemiologist1,
- Ulrich Keil, epidemiologist2
- 1Comprehensive Cancer Centre Aachen, Pauwelsstrasse 30, DE-52074 Aachen, Germany
- 2Institute of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Muenster, Muenster, Germany
Doshi discusses the studies that have shown pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Most governments have based their decisions in the covid-19 pandemic on the advice of a limited group of experts, mainly a few virologists and disease modellers. Using earlier transmission models, these experts calculated that an uncontrolled SARS-CoV-2 epidemic would infect about 81% of the UK and the US populations. Assuming an infection fatality rate of 0.9%, they predicted 510 000 (UK) and 2.2 million (US) deaths, …
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