Intended for healthcare professionals

Letters Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2

Should we continue covid-19 suppression measures based on a transmission model that ignored pre-existing human immunity?

BMJ 2020; 371 doi: (Published 13 October 2020) Cite this as: BMJ 2020;371:m3927
  1. Angela Spelsberg, epidemiologist1,
  2. Ulrich Keil, epidemiologist2
  1. 1Comprehensive Cancer Centre Aachen, Pauwelsstrasse 30, DE-52074 Aachen, Germany
  2. 2Institute of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Muenster, Muenster, Germany
  1. spelsberg{at}

Doshi discusses the studies that have shown pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2.[3] Most governments have based their decisions in the covid-19 pandemic on the advice of a limited group of experts, mainly a few virologists and disease modellers. Using earlier transmission models, these experts calculated that an uncontrolled SARS-CoV-2 epidemic would infect about 81% of the UK and the US populations. Assuming an infection fatality rate of 0.9%, they predicted 510 000 (UK) and 2.2 million (US) deaths, …

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