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Covid-19: Infection rates have risen in hotspot areas despite local lockdowns, analysis shows

BMJ 2020; 371 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3912 (Published 07 October 2020) Cite this as: BMJ 2020;371:m3912

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  1. Gareth Iacobucci
  1. The BMJ

Almost all areas of England that have been under covid-19 lockdown restrictions for two months have seen an increase in infection rates despite the measures, an analysis by the Labour Party has shown.

Currently, 20 areas in England are under restrictions, which were announced from 29 June to mid-September. Many of these are in the north west of England. But Labour’s analysis shows that 19 of these areas have seen infection rates increase since the restrictions were announced (see table).

Examples include Bolton, which has been under restrictions since 30 July but has seen its infection rate rise from 20 to 255 per 100 000 people; Bury, which has been under restrictions since 31 July but has seen its infection rate increase from 20 to 266 per 100 000; and Burnley, which has been under restrictions since 31 July but has seen its infection rate increase over 20-fold, from 21 to 434 per 100 000.

Labour’s leader, Keir Starmer, urged Boris Johnson to get a grip on the rise in infections and do more to help get people in these areas out of lockdown.

“Angry and frustrated”

Speaking at prime minister’s questions on 7 October, Starmer said, “The prime minister really needs to understand that local communities are angry and frustrated. So, will he level with the people of Bury, Burnley, and Bolton and tell them—what does he actually think the problem is that’s causing this?

“The prime minister can’t explain why an area goes into restrictions. He can’t explain what the different restrictions are, and he can’t explain how restrictions end. This is getting ridiculous.”

In response, Johnson accused Labour of abstaining on a vote last night to approve the government’s “rule of six” policy.

He said, “The problem is, alas, that the disease continues to spread. The figures are no surprise. What we are doing is a combination of national and local measures, which one week he [Starmer] comes to the house to support and the next he decides to whisk his support away. That’s not new leadership, that’s no leadership.”

Covid-19 cases in areas of England under lockdown (source: Labour Party analysis)

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