Government must investigate rising excess deaths in England and Wales, experts warn
BMJ 2018; 361 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.k2127 (Published 11 May 2018) Cite this as: BMJ 2018;361:k2127
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Dear Sir,
In the times of scarlet-fever it is dangerous to inhibit penicillin.
The old foe streptococcus is still with us, always changing its identity.
Best wishes
Yours,
Friedrich
Competing interests: No competing interests
Thanks to Professor Dorling for his reply
The data for comparison for most countries are not readily accessible for the start of 2018, and we don't have much EU data since life expectancy dropped across Europe in 2015. We do know that Scotland has seen an increase in deaths last year and this and that there has been an increase here in "Deaths of Despair," from suicide, alcohol and drugs. Scotland appears to have birth cohort effects emerging in these deaths which are very similar to US non-Hispanic whites.
Case and Deaton, who have been at the forefront of the US epidemiology refer to similar increases in mortality in other English speaking countries. The US analysis is quite clear that the deaths of despair phenomenon does not correlate to the experience of poverty or inequality, or the provision of health care. Rising mortality has not (at least until last year) affected African Americans who experience much greater economic disadvantage and low rates of health care coverage.
By all means investigate rising mortality. My fear is that the case seems to have been pre-judged by a closed shop composed of a liberal elite.
Competing interests: No competing interests
In 2016 one of the authors of the article that resulted in this story gave a public lecture. It was titled:
"Epidemiology: abandoning the social: How deaths in England and Wales rose in a year by 5%, in Scotland by 9%, but epidemiologists were too busy with the genome to notice the bills of mortality"
At the International Journal of Epidemiology Conference, University of Bristol, October 7th 2016."
It can be viewed here https://youtu.be/2z-XbPd8H9Y
The current increase in mortality is in comparison to a period in which rates were also already elevated as compared to what past trends had been. It would be good if epidemiologists, having had their attention drawn elsewhere in recent years were (in greater numbers than so far) to begin to investigate these recent very unusual trends within the United Kingdom, and make comparisons across Europe., and also with other similar societies around worldwide. How unusual have events in the UK been since 2010 - as compared to appropriate geographical comparators. Apart from the USA, has anywhere else fared so badly?
Competing interests: No competing interests
Better understanding of the phenomenon of rising mortality across the Western world would be welcome. Government policies are no doubt part of the problem, but epidemiologists need to take a hard look at themselves. They didn't see this coming and they don't have a clue what's going on.
Competing interests: No competing interests
Re: Government must investigate rising excess deaths in England and Wales, experts warn
Please could someone check the effects of the mass anti-coagulation of the elderly.
Competing interests: No competing interests