Letters Prediction models for cardiovascular risk

On validation of cardiovascular risk scores

BMJ 2016; 354 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.i4483 (Published 16 August 2016) Cite this as: BMJ 2016;354:i4483
  1. Mark Woodward, professor of statistics and epidemiology
  1. The George Institute for Global Health, University of Oxford (UK) and University of Sydney (Australia), Oxford OX1 3BD, UK
  1. mark.woodward{at}georgeinstitute.ox.ac.uk

Damen and colleagues present an interesting overview of prediction models for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, with recommendations for future practice.1 Unfortunately, although they make much of the so called “validation” of these scores in research articles, they say nothing about its relevance to current clinical practice.

In predictive modelling, as reviewed by these authors, historical data are used to predict a known future. Each model produces a risk score on a scale of 0-1 (or 0%-100%), but each outcome is either an event or a non-event, so the score …

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