Actually, I agree with John Lowe, as I realised the minute after I fired off my last response. Probability and uncertainty is difficult, especially when predicting the future !!
But in fact that does mean we are both on the same page in the real world - real doctors have serious matters to deal with, and will need a whole new way of thinking to grasp the real relevance of risk !
Gerd Grigerenzer thought natural frequencies would be the solution, but I think pictures, fuzzy thinking, and not precision maths, are probably the way to go.
Rapid Response:
Actually, I agree with John Lowe, as I realised the minute after I fired off my last response. Probability and uncertainty is difficult, especially when predicting the future !!
But in fact that does mean we are both on the same page in the real world - real doctors have serious matters to deal with, and will need a whole new way of thinking to grasp the real relevance of risk !
Gerd Grigerenzer thought natural frequencies would be the solution, but I think pictures, fuzzy thinking, and not precision maths, are probably the way to go.
Competing interests: Having a life