Shortage of health workers is set to double, says WHO

The world could be short of nearly 13 million health workers by 2035 because of an ageing workforce, a shortage of trainees, and workers leaving for better paid jobs, says a report by the World Health Organization.1

It says that currently the world is short of 7.2 million doctors, nurses, and midwives but that this number will rise to 12.9 million by 2035 if the shortages are not tackled.

The report found that of 186 countries with available data 83 fell below the basic threshold of 22.8 skilled health professionals for every 10 000 people (seen as the number needed to carry out essential health interventions) and that 118 countries fell below the upper threshold of 59.4 skilled health professionals per 10 000 people.

Most of the countries falling below the basic threshold, and also where the proportion of births attended by skilled birth attendants was less than 80%, were in Africa (70% of the group) and South East Asia (13%). Some of South East Asia’s most populous countries fell into this category: India (with a population of 1.24 billion), Indonesia (250 million), and Bangladesh (155 million).

The report looked in detail at how the health workforce has changed in the 57 countries with the lowest ratio of health workers. In 46 countries with available data the report found that 32 reported increases in numbers of trained doctors, nurses, and midwives. However, in seven countries the increase in population meant that the net increases in staff numbers would have little or no effect.

The report also warned that the current rate of training of new health professionals was falling well below current and projected demand and that it was in sub-Saharan Africa where the shortages would have the worst effects. The 47 countries of sub-Saharan Africa have just 168 medical schools. Eleven of these countries have no medical school, and 24 have just one medical school.

One of the main challenges is the lack of data on numbers of qualified health professionals. Using unique numbers to identify health workers helps to track their movements and avoid double counting, but many countries don’t use them. Some countries also do not differentiate between those who are working and those who are not. Many countries also just use a simple head count to track numbers, rather than counting the numbers of whole time equivalents.

Marie-Paule Kieny, WHO’s assistant director general for health systems and innovation, said that countries must “rethink and improve” how they teach, train, deploy, and pay health workers.

“The foundations for a strong and effective health workforce for the future are being corroded in front of our very eyes by failing to match today’s supply of professionals with the demands of tomorrow’s populations,” she added.