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Recent high death rates in older people are not exceptional, says Public Health England

BMJ 2013; 347 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.f5252 (Published 23 August 2013) Cite this as: BMJ 2013;347:f5252

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Re: Recent high death rates in older people are not exceptional, says Public Health England

While the Public Health England (PHE) report is welcome it appears to contain an inadvertent methodological flaw in that the baseline in Figure 3 trends upward over time thereby diminishing the number of excess deaths. This upward trend contradicts the forecasts made by the Government Actuary. A discussion of this and other limitations has been published in nhsManagers.net and can be found at http://library.constantcontact.com/download/get/file/1102665899193-1362/...

Competing interests: The author provides consultancy to health care organisations

27 August 2013
Rodney P Jones
Statistical Advisor
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
Camberley, Surrey