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While the Public Health England (PHE) report is welcome it appears to contain an inadvertent methodological flaw in that the baseline in Figure 3 trends upward over time thereby diminishing the number of excess deaths. This upward trend contradicts the forecasts made by the Government Actuary. A discussion of this and other limitations has been published in nhsManagers.net and can be found at http://library.constantcontact.com/download/get/file/1102665899193-1362/...
The author provides consultancy to health care organisations