Intended for healthcare professionals

Letters Antimicrobial resistance

Threat posed by antimicrobial resistance must not be underestimated

BMJ 2013; 346 doi: (Published 10 April 2013) Cite this as: BMJ 2013;346:f2135
  1. Martin Hensher, director of strategic planning1
  1. 1Tasmania Department of Health and Human Services, Hobart, TAS 7000, Australia
  1. Martin.Hensher{at}

Health economic evaluation has increasingly converged on an agreed set of principles and procedures based around probabilistic modelling, clinical trials, and meta-analysis. Smith and Coast’s article on antimicrobial resistance shows us clearly and elegantly why these methods will probably fail us the moment we step outside the carefully controlled world of trials into the world of uncertain …

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