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Dramatic trial results are often too good to be true

BMJ 2012; 345 doi: (Published 24 October 2012) Cite this as: BMJ 2012;345:e7107

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New interventions rarely make large differences to patient outcomes when tested in trials. Trials that report very large effects (odds ratios ≥5 or ≤0.2) are usually small and investigate surrogate outcomes, such as laboratory test results, rather than clinical outcomes, such as death, say researchers. In …

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