Letters Predicting citations

Validating prediction models

BMJ 2008; 336 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.39542.610000.3A (Published 10 April 2008) Cite this as: BMJ 2008;336:789
  1. Ewout W Steyerberg, professor of medical decision making,
  2. Hester F Lingsma, junior researcher
  1. 1Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, PO Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, Netherlands
  1. E.Steyerberg{at}erasmusmc.nl

    Lokker et al presented an interesting model to predict citation counts for clinical articles.1 This topic is so important that the paper will probably attract many citations. We want to clarify some of the nomenclature of validation of prediction models, to avoid confusion in future reporting.

    The authors randomly divided 1274 articles into a derivation data set of 757 articles for development of a prediction model and a validation dataset for testing …

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