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Clinical Review

The economics of global tobacco control

BMJ 2000; 321 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.321.7257.358 (Published 05 August 2000) Cite this as: BMJ 2000;321:358

Data supplement

  • Table A

    Table B
     

    Table A Independent quantitative studies on the contribution of tobacco to various countries’ economies

      StudyModelAssumption of reduction or elimination of domestic consumption expenditures or production Assumption of alternative expenditure patterns Assumption of government reactionResults
      Scotland
      McNicoll and Boylew1StaticElimination of domestic consumption expenditures in 1989 According to "average" expenditure patterns No change in government expenditureNet gain of 7869 jobs in 1989
      United States
      Warner and Fultonw2DynamicScenarios: Elimination of domestic consumption expenditures, and doubling the rate of decline in consumption over the period 1992-2005 According to "average" expenditure patterns Increases in other government taxes, and/or reduced government spending Net gain of 5600 jobs in 1992 up to an additional 1500 jobs by 2005
      Warner et alw3DynamicScenarios: Elimination of domestic consumption expenditures, and doubling the rate of decline in consumption over the period 1993-2000 According to "average" expenditure patterns Increases in other government taxes, and/or reduced government spending Net gain of 47 jobs in 1993 and 133000 jobs by 2000, 19719 net jobs with doubling consumption decline
      United Kingdom
      Buck et alw4Static40% decline in domestic consumption expenditures in 1990 Scenarios: According to "recent stoppers", all non-smokers, all former smokers, and "average" expenditure patterns Increases in other government taxes or reduced government spending Net gain of 155542 jobs or 115688 full time equivalent jobs in 1990 with "recent stopper" expenditures and government increasing other consumer taxes
      Canada
      Irvine and Simsw5Static20% decline in domestic demand for cigarettes in 1995 According to "average" expenditure patterns Reduced government spendingNet loss of 6120 jobs in 1995
      South Africa
      Van der Merwew6StaticScenarios: Elimination of domestic consumption expenditures, and doubling the rate of decline in consumption in 1995 Scenarios: According to "recent stoppers", and "average" expenditure patterns Increases in other government taxes, and/or reduced government spending Net gain of 50236 jobs in 1995 with elimination of tobacco and "recent stopper" expenditures
      Zimbabwe
      Van der Merwew7StaticElimination of domestic consumption expenditures and all tobacco production in 1980 Scenarios: According to "average" input-output patterns and all production shifted to alternatives in agriculture No change in government expenditureNet loss of 87798 jobs in 1980 and 47463 jobs when all output goes to alternatives in agriculture
      Bangladesh
      Van der Merwew8StaticElimination of domestic consumption expenditures and all tobacco production for cigarettes and "bidis" in 1994 According to "average" expenditure patterns No change in government expenditureNet gain of 10989192 jobs in 1994 in the formal sector

      w1 McNicoll IH, Boyle S. Regional economic impact of a reduction of resident expenditure on cigarettes: a case study of Glasgow. Appl Econ 1992;24:291-6.

      w2 Warner KE, Fulton GA. The economic implications of tobacco product sales in a non-tobacco state. JAMA 1994;271:771-6.

      w3 Warner KE, Fulton GA, Nicolas P, Grimes DR. Employment implications of declining tobacco product sales for the regional economies of the United States. JAMA 1996;275:1241-6.

      w4 Buck D, Godfrey C, Raw M, Sutton M. Tobacco and jobs. Society for the Study of Addiction and Centre for Health Economics, York: University of York. (1995),

      w5 Irvine IJ, Sims WA. Tobacco control legislation and resource allocation effects. Can Public Policy 1997;23:259-73.

      w6 Van der Merwe R. The economics of tobacco control in South Africa. In: Abedian I, van der Merwe R, Wilkins N, Jha P, eds. The economics of tobacco control: towards an optimal policy mix. Cape Town: Medical Association of South Africa Press, 1998:251-71.

      w7 Van der Merwe R. Employment and output effects for Zimbabwe with the elimination of tobacco consumption and production. Washington, DC: Population, Health and Nutrition Department, World Bank, 1998.

      w8 Van der Merwe R. Employment and output effects for Bangladesh following a decline in tobacco consumption. Washington, DC: Population, Health and Nutrition Department, World Bank, 1998.

      Table B Independent qualitative studies on the contribution of tobacco to various countries’ economies

        StudyAssumptionsConclusions
        Canada
        Allenw9Jobs could be subsumed through normal workforce attrition

        Technological changes caused many job losses

        Increased public revenues could be spent to maintain services and create jobs

        Cost savings in shifting Canadian production abroad

        Distribution jobs would remain

        Economy would self correct

        		Control policies, primarily taxes, would have negligible adverse effect on employment
        Pacific Islands
        Collins and Lapsleyw10Alternative cash crops are likely available on islands that grow tobacco

        Freed expenditure resources directed to goods and services with higher labour content

        Improvement in balance of payments on current account from reduced tobacco imports

        		Reduction in consumption would probably produce small increase in employment

        w9 Allen RC. The false dilemma: the impact of tobacco control policies on employment in Canada. Ottawa, Ontario: National Campaign for Action on Tobacco, 1993.

        w10 Collins D, Lapsley H. The economic impact of tobacco smoking in Pacific Islands. Sydney: Pacific Tobacco and Health Project, Adventist Development and Relief Agency, Australian International Development Assistance Bureau, 1997.
         

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