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What is the prior probability of a proposed new treatment being superior to established treatments?

BMJ 1997; 314 doi: (Published 04 January 1997) Cite this as: BMJ 1997;314:74
  1. Iain Chalmers, Directora
  1. a UK Cochrane Centre, NHS Research and Development Programme, Oxford OX2 7LG

    Editor–Terence Stephenson and David A Walker ask whether parents and children who are considering participating in a clinical trial of a new treatment for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia should be made aware that “for the past decade the new experimental treatments [studied in randomised trials] have given better outcomes.”1 In other words, hunches based on non-randomised evidence about which developments …

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