In responding to Jorgensen and Gotzsche's [1] criticism, Wald et al.
[2] deny that their estimate of the background risk of dying from breast
cancer is inflated.
They maintain that in 1988, when screening began, 60% of all breast
cancer deaths (and 3% of all deaths in women) occurred in the age group 55
-75.
National statistics for 1988 [3] show that of 289,023 deaths in
females 13,723 (4.75%) were due to breast cancer - 6,080 (44.3%) of which
occurred in the age group 55-75. Thus the background risk of dying from
breast cancer in this age group is 6,080 in 289,023 or 2.1%.
Their 3% estimate is inflated by 43%.
1. Jorgensen KJ, Gotzsche P. Fundamental errors in estimate of lives
saved by screening. BMJ 2009;339:b3359.
Rapid Response:
Background risk of dying from breast cancer
In responding to Jorgensen and Gotzsche's [1] criticism, Wald et al.
[2] deny that their estimate of the background risk of dying from breast
cancer is inflated.
They maintain that in 1988, when screening began, 60% of all breast
cancer deaths (and 3% of all deaths in women) occurred in the age group 55
-75.
National statistics for 1988 [3] show that of 289,023 deaths in
females 13,723 (4.75%) were due to breast cancer - 6,080 (44.3%) of which
occurred in the age group 55-75. Thus the background risk of dying from
breast cancer in this age group is 6,080 in 289,023 or 2.1%.
Their 3% estimate is inflated by 43%.
1. Jorgensen KJ, Gotzsche P. Fundamental errors in estimate of lives
saved by screening. BMJ 2009;339:b3359.
2. Wald NJ, Law MR, Duffy SW. Lives saved by breast cancer screening.
BMJ 2009 (Rapid response 2 September 2009)
http://www.bmj.com/cgi/eletters/339/aug25_1/b3359
3. Office of Population Censuses and Surveys. Mortality statistics:
cause 1988. London: HMSO, 1990. (Series DH2 no.15. Table 2).
Competing interests:
None declared
Competing interests: No competing interests