Rubella Scares - Demonstrating the Figures are False

11 August 2005




Dear Sir,

False Government Rubella Scare Stories - Demonstrating the Figures are False

The USA has to date vaccinated approximately 120 million children with rubella vaccine, either monovalent or in MMR.
[1]The contributions of Peter Flegg, Consultant physician, Blackpool and Tony Floyd, Medical Student, Newcastle University [2], [3]help to provide more proof this has been done on the basis of flawed and inflated figures bearing no relation to actual cases and promulgated by government and those who speak for it.

We can calculate an initial ceiling beyond which we know the numbers of US congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) cases could not go. Demonstrating this initial ceiling is an order of magnitude or more higher than the real figure is also not difficult. The more accurate calculation remains one based on real figures for an entire US state in 1964, and particularly a state served by Johns Hopkins. [4]

We are told [2] a paper cites 17 CRS cases from 6000 pregnancies in 11 US hospitals in 1964. If we assume the number of US hospitals were roughly similar in 1964 to 1980, the 1980 figure is 7156 US hospitals [5]. This provides the starting point of an 11,000 ceiling for US CRS cases.

Approximately 1000 of these 7156 hospitals were psychiatric units. Further, of the remainder, not all US hospitals have now or had in 1964 maternity units. One might reasonably expect less than half to have had. Additionally, not all hospitals are the same size. The 1980 figures show then they ranged in size from 6 beds to over 500 beds. [5] This also shows overall substantial variations in local populations served by hospitals of substantially varying sizes. And then there would be regional variations in incidence of CRS.

There were also substantially fewer hospitals with the higher numbers of beds. It would also be a reasonable assumption that the 11 hospitals cited as having 17 CRS cases were of the larger size with maternity units as it is more likely researchers would concentrate on the larger bed size hospitals with substantial maternity units. Accordingly, it can be easily seen that the numbers of CRS cases in the US would be bound to be vastly lower than 11,000 and likely by an order of magnitude or more. This is also without taking into account
whether it is realistic to assume all 1963/4 US pregnancies received ante-natal care in hospital rather than with local general practice or mid-wifery practices and how many could, in 1964 afford much ante-natal care? It may have been that the 6000 cases from 11 hospitals were only those cases where hospital care was necessary.

What is indisputably bizarre about the alleged 1964 rubella 'pandemic' is that for something so allegedly serious, with such allegedly serious outcomes and for so many, is that the authorities feel the need to overstate the true figures. Rubella vaccination is motivated by government desire to save money, not to protect children.

There is also something seriously wrong in the world of 'professional' medicine when a student in a medical school will not agree 300,000 US CRS cases in 1964 is a figure bearing no relation to reality. [3]


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[1] This figure assumes 4 million per annum birth rate since the 1969 introduction of rubella vaccine and 80% vaccination coverage over that period.

[2] Re: False Government Rubella Scare Stories - Now 300,000 Congenital Rubella Cases! - 30th June 2005 - Peter Flegg


[3] Re: The Cost of a Rubella Outbreak Would be More than Just Financial 30 June 2005 Tony Floyd


[4] False Government Rubella Scare Stories - Only 20,000 Percent Overstated 1 June 2005 - Clifford Miller

[5]
ftp://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Publications/Health_US/hus04tables/Table109.xls


Competing interests: None declared

Competing interests: None declared

Clifford G. Miller, Lawyer, graduate physicist, former university examining lecturer in law

BR3 3LA

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