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Clinical Review

Understanding sensitivity and specificity with the right side of the brain

BMJ 2003; 327 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.327.7417.716 (Published 25 September 2003) Cite this as: BMJ 2003;327:716

Rapid Response:

One in a thousand?

Others have already highlighted the BMJ Editor's repetition of
Loong's main error in asking the wrong question. However, I believe there
is an answer to the question as asked, to "explain why a test with 95%
sensitivity might identify only 1% of affected people in the general
population?" Surely the answer to this conundrum is that about 99% of
those affected were not tested!

Tze-Wey Loong's final point is disingenuous. To demonstrate a
sensitivity of 99.999%, one would need to test 100,000 individuals with
the disease to yield a single false negative result. With a disease
prevalence of 0.033%, this would require a population of 303,030,303 to
find 100,000 affected individuals in whom to test the test.

Competing interests:  
None declared

Competing interests: No competing interests

29 September 2003
Jennifer S Mindell
Honorary senior clinical lecturer
, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG