I am a Saturday morning surfer with a Ph.D. in Economics who manages
risk on a large portfolio of small business loans. As such, I build
statistical models every day, using them to make bets that materially
affect my and my family's well-being.
My prior belief, having read the literature on scientific evidence
for paranormal effects, is that prayer could work, including
retroactively. However, the method and results of this study were not
satisfying.
First, the p values were indeed weak (I routinely require p<.001
in models I'm betting on). Second, a replication would have been
convincing--not on the same patient group with a different outcome, which
contradicts any reasonable hypothesis of the underlying physics, but with
another group of patients, outcomes, and prayers.
I encourage BMJ to continue to publish well-constructed studies of
paranormal healing "effects" or synchronicities.
Rapid Response:
Re: The power of statistics, not prayer
Editors:
I am a Saturday morning surfer with a Ph.D. in Economics who manages
risk on a large portfolio of small business loans. As such, I build
statistical models every day, using them to make bets that materially
affect my and my family's well-being.
My prior belief, having read the literature on scientific evidence
for paranormal effects, is that prayer could work, including
retroactively. However, the method and results of this study were not
satisfying.
First, the p values were indeed weak (I routinely require p<.001
in models I'm betting on). Second, a replication would have been
convincing--not on the same patient group with a different outcome, which
contradicts any reasonable hypothesis of the underlying physics, but with
another group of patients, outcomes, and prayers.
I encourage BMJ to continue to publish well-constructed studies of
paranormal healing "effects" or synchronicities.
Elliott Middleton, Ph.D.
Competing interests:
None declared
Competing interests: No competing interests