Mumps, measles, and rubella vaccine and the incidence of autism recorded by general practitioners: a time trend analysis

I am not a medical person, however a study of statistics is a normal
part of an engineering degree, and it is from that basis there are some
apparent anomalies between the data that Kaye et al have published and
other facts that they themselves and others have provided.

The first is the MMR prevalence from Fig.2, which remains remarkably
static at around 97%. In contrast to that, John P. Heprtonstall mentions
the successive imunisation campaigns of 1988, 1992, 1994, 1996. I do not
understand how these campaigns, the existence of which Kaye does not
dispute, could not effect the measured prevalence of MMR? Surely either
the data or the campaigns must be seriously called into question... and,
if the data is not to be questioned, given the supposed lack of effect of
the first campaign, why three more, equally ineffective campaigns were
carried out!

Secondly, from Kaye's testimony, amongst the cases and controls, 3%
had not had MMR. He then focuses on a group of 110 boys with autism, of
whom only one had not had the MMR vaccine, a "non-uptake" of one-third
that of the control group.

This is a small sample space I agree, and that the difference between
the expected 3 and the measured 1 is small. Nevertheless it would be
interesting to know of the 305 total cases observed, how many had the MMR
vaccine, and whether that is closer to the quoted 97%.