Why are suicide rates rising in young men but falling in the elderly?—a time-series analysis of trends in England and Wales 1950–1998

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Abstract

Suicide rates doubled in males aged <45 in England and Wales between 1950 and 1998, in contrast rates declined in older males and females of all ages. Explanations for these divergent trends are largely speculative, but social changes are likely to have played an important role. We undertook a time-series analysis using routinely available age- and sex-specific suicide, social, economic and health data, focussing on the two age groups in which trends have diverged most—25–34 and 60+ year olds. Between 1950 and 1998 there were unfavourable trends in many of the risk factors for suicide: rises in divorce, unemployment and substance misuse and declines in births and marriage. Whilst economic prosperity has increased, so too has income inequality. Trends in suicide risk factors were generally similar in both age–sex groups, although the rises in divorce and markers of substance misuse were most marked in 25–34 year olds and young males experienced the lowest rise in antidepressant prescribing. Statistical modelling indicates that no single factor can be identified as underlying recent trends. The factors most consistently associated with the rises in young male suicide are increases in divorce, declines in marriage and increases in income inequality. These changes have had little effect on suicide in young females. This may be because the drugs commonly used in overdose—their favoured method of suicide—have become less toxic or because they are less affected by the factors underlying the rise in male suicide. In older people declines in suicide were associated with increases in gross domestic product, the size of the female workforce, marriage and the prescribing of antidepressants. Recent population trends in suicide appear to be associated with by a range of social and health related factors. It is possible that some of the patterns observed are due to declining levels of social integration, but such effects do not appear to have adversely influenced patterns in older generations.

Introduction

Suicide is one of the principal causes of premature mortality in young adults in industrialised countries. The last 50 years have seen striking changes in its occurrence in England and Wales (see Fig. 1) (Charlton et al., 1992; McClure, 2000). In males aged <45 years rates have doubled, whilst they have declined substantially in females and older males. Similar increases in young male suicide have occurred in other industrialised nations although, in contrast to the pattern in England and Wales, many of these countries have also experienced rises in young female suicide (Charlton et al., 1993, Cantor, 2000). Explanations for these trends remain largely speculative.

Over 100 years ago, Durkheim recognised that societal changes, such as economic crises or periods of war, contribute to changing patterns of suicide (Durkheim, 1952). He viewed suicide rates as ‘social facts’ and argued that they may be influenced by, amongst other factors, the extent to which individuals are integrated within society. Durkheim argued that social integration could be achieved through family support together with religious, political and work affiliations (Durkheim, 1952). Sociological and epidemiological inquiry over the course of the last century has confirmed and refined Durkheim's theories, identifying the importance of patterns of unemployment, divorce, alcohol misuse and religion in explaining national differences and trends in suicide (Gunnell et al., 1999a; Lester, Curran, & Yung, 1991; Makela, 1996; Lester, 1997; Neeleman et al., 1997). In the last decade, it has been theorised that income inequality may too be an important additional influence on levels of social integration (Wilkinson, 1996; Kawachi & Kennedy, 1997).

The differing age- and sex-specific trends in suicide suggest that the societal processes underling them may be different in the various sociodemographic groups. Alternatively, common adverse influences may be offset by varying distributions of protective factors. With some exceptions (Morrell et al., 1993; Gunnell et al., 1999a; Makela, 1996), however, most previous assessments of the causes of recent changes in national suicide rates have investigated factors associated with time trends in overall population suicide rates (i.e. all age-groups combined) (Weyerer & Wiedenmann, 1995; Low et al., 1981; Lester & Yang, 1991). Such analyses cannot elucidate factors underlying the markedly varying time trends in different age–sex groups. Furthermore, many studies have assessed the effects on suicide rates of changes in single factors such as unemployment (Crombie, 1990; Gunnell et al., 1999a) or alcohol intake (Yip, Callanau, & Yuen, 2000). In other studies, associations between two or more factors have been examined but important variables, such as unemployment or alcohol consumption (Stack, 1990; Leenaars, Yang, & Lester, 1993), have been neglected. Inconsistent findings have emerged from these studies and in view of the degree of correlation between many proposed ‘risk factors’ it is challenging to identify the factors underlying recent trends.

Focussing on the two age/sex groups with the most divergent suicide trends in post-war Britain, i.e. 25–34 and 60+ year old men and women (see Fig. 1), the principle aim of this research was to identify the social, health and economic factors associated with recent patterns. Where possible we have used age- and sex-specific risk factor data. The main factors we have examined are those consistently associated with suicide risk in prospective person-based research and in time-series analyses (see Table 1). We also examined associations with three other measures—income inequality, gross domestic product (GDP) and measures of state support for the elderly. We investigated the influence of income inequality (measured using the GINI coefficient) as it has been hypothesised that increased inequality contributes to reduced social integration and increased mortality (Wilkinson, 1996; Kawachi & Kennedy, 1997). We hypothesised that changing levels of income inequality may influence suicide rates through a similar mechanism. We examined associations with GDP to investigate whether changes in a nation's economic performance, which have been shown to influence population levels of life satisfaction (Di Tella, MacCulloch, & Oswald, 2001), may also affect patterns of suicide. Lastly, as it has been suggested that declining suicide rates in older people may be due to increased levels of state income support and welfare provision (Hoxey & Shah, 2000), we used markers of these changes to assess their association with suicide rates in the elderly.

Section snippets

Suicide data

We obtained routinely available mortality data for England and Wales for the period 1950–1998 from the Office of National Statistics (ONS). For consistency across time we have used suicide data only—deaths coded E950-9 in the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) ICD 8 & 9 and E970-9 in ICD7. The category undetermined deaths—those given a coroner's open verdict and ICD9 coded E980–E989—was introduced in 1968. Rather than include undetermined deaths for only part of the period

Suicide trends

Fig. 1 shows age-specific trends in suicide in England and Wales over the last 50 years. The most striking feature over the years displayed is the reduction in suicide rates in males aged 55 and over. The rises in suicide in 15–24 and 35–44 year old males seen in the 1970s and 1980s have recently levelled off, but rates are still rising in 25–34 year old males and this group now has the highest rate of all age–sex groups. In females, with the exception of 15–24 year olds, there have been marked

Main findings

Four main findings emerged from our analyses. First, the increases in young male suicide in England and Wales in the last 30 years have paralleled rises in a number of risk factors for suicide in this age group, namely unemployment, divorce, alcohol and drug abuse, and declines in marriage. In keeping with the findings of Charlton and colleagues in their assessment of post-war suicide trends up to 1990 (Charlton et al., 1993) one of the factors most consistently associated with patterns of

Conclusions

This analysis indicates that no single factor can be clearly implicated as underlying recent trends in suicide. The causes of suicide are complex and multifactorial. Population trends are therefore likely to be influenced not only by social changes and patterns of health and healthcare, but also by trends in the lethality of popular methods used for suicide. Importantly the data presented here underline the striking differences in effects of societal changes on suicide risk at different stages

Acknowledgements

We wish to acknowledge: NHS South and West R&D for funding this project; IMS Health, Pinner, Middlesex for access to UK prescribing data. Professor Frankel was supported by the Leverhulme Trust during this period.

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