Comparison of strategies to identify women at risk of diagnosis of ovarian cancer in next two years based on validation cohort
| Criteria | Risk threshold (%) | True negative* | False negative* | False positive* | True positive* | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | Positive predictive value (%) | Negative predictive value (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Family history of ovarian cancer | NA | 470 593 | 527 | 983 | 11 | 2.0 | 99.8 | 1.1 | 99.9 |
| Rectal bleeding | NA | 461 281 | 527 | 10 295 | 11 | 2.0 | 97.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Postmenopausal bleeding | NA | 463 624 | 489 | 7 952 | 49 | 9.1 | 98.3 | 0.6 | 99.9 |
| Abdominal pain | NA | 417 609 | 272 | 53 967 | 266 | 49.4 | 88.6 | 0.5 | 99.9 |
| Abdominal distension | NA | 469 312 | 496 | 2 264 | 42 | 7.8 | 99.5 | 1.8 | 99.9 |
| Appetite loss | NA | 469 572 | 527 | 2 004 | 11 | 2.0 | 99.6 | 0.5 | 99.9 |
| Weight loss | NA | 466 430 | 516 | 5 146 | 22 | 4.1 | 98.9 | 0.4 | 99.9 |
| Any of six above symptoms† | NA | 390 842 | 151 | 80 734 | 387 | 71.9 | 82.9 | 0.5 | 100.0 |
| Top 10% risk | 0.2 | 427 982 | 198 | 43 594 | 340 | 63.2 | 90.8 | 0.8 | 100.0 |
| Top 5% risk | 0.5 | 450 719 | 311 | 20 857 | 227 | 42.2 | 95.6 | 1.1 | 99.9 |
| Top 1% risk | 0.7 | 468 084 | 463 | 3492 | 75 | 13.9 | 99.3 | 2.1 | 99.9 |
| Top 0.5% risk | 1.4 | 469 790 | 479 | 1786 | 59 | 11.0 | 99.6 | 3.2 | 99.9 |
| Top 0.1% risk | 2.3 | 471 214 | 517 | 362 | 21 | 3.9 | 99.9 | 5.5 | 99.9 |
NA=not applicable.
*True negative=criterion not met, does not have disease; false negative=criterion not met, does have disease; false positive=criteria met, does not have disease; true positive=criterion met and has disease.
†This would include 17.2% of all women.