Table 1

 Data used to estimate QALYs for mammographic breast cancer screening of women aged 50, by scenario

Parameter and scenarioValueSources
Relative risk reduction in mortality from breast cancer:
 Scenario 1−30% for 10 years, 0% thereafterForrest report1
 Scenarios 2-3−19%Gøtzsche and Nielsen Cochrane review6
 Scenario 4−15%Gøtzsche and Nielsen Cochrane Review6
 Scenario 5−14% at age 50-9 over 10 years, −32% at age 60-9 over 10 yearsNelson et al, US systematic review7 8
False positive rate:
 All scenarios6.39% at 1st invitation; 3.06% at 2nd and subsequent invitationSmith-Bindman et al14
 Loss of quality of life−5%Best estimates based on Peasgood,15 Stout,16 De Haes,17 Madan18
 Duration of loss (years)0.2
Breast cancer surgery:
 Relative risk35% (26% to 44%)Gøtzsche and Nielsen Cochrane review6
 Loss of quality of life:
  Scenarios 1-2−6% for lives saved onlyForrest report1
  Scenarios 3, 4, 5−6% for all who had surgeryPeasgood,15 Stout,16 De Haes17
  Sensitivity analysis±2%COMICE trial13
 Duration of lossPermanent in base case6Forrest report,1 Peasgood,15 Stout,16 De Haes,17 PRIME trial follow-up14
  Sensitivity analyses5 and 10 years’ duration
Baseline mortality from breast cancer Rates per 100 000: 73.65 at age 50-54, 97.55 at age 55-59, 117.47 at age 60-64, 123.03 at age 65-69NHS mortality statistics for 1985, England9
Baseline risk of breast cancer surgeryRate per 100 000: 438.01 aged 45-64HIPE for England 198510 11
Screening attendance rate73.2%Advisory Committee on Breast Cancer Screening19
Time frame0-20 years, scenarios (except scenarios with 5 and 10 year duration)

QALY=quality adjusted life year.