Table 2

 Variables and coefficients in the parsimonious model (model 5) for allocating funds to general practices in England for commissioning hospital care; predicting costs for 2007-8 using data from 2005-6 and 2006-7

Variable nameCoefficient*Standard error
Individual-level
Age and sex†
157 ICD-10 groups (diagnoses variables)‡
Attributed needs
Persons in social rented housing0.350.08
All disability allowance claimants422.4272.33
People aged 16–74 years with no qualifications (age standardised)23.974.66
Mature city professionals−28.258.139
Proportion of students in population−1571.83141.19
If person had a privately funded inpatient episode of care provided by NHS (2004–6)−555.7423.09
Asthma prevalence (2006)3.170.83
Attributed supply
Quality of stroke care (primary and secondary care) by weighted population (2005)−0.740.17
Accessibility to magnetic resonance imaging7781.371625.73
Catchment population of hospital trust that supplied practice with largest number of inpatient admissions (2006-7)−0.00003540.00001

*Coefficients are unstandardised, so they are dependent on the units of measurement; hence the large values for some variables, which do not necessarily reflect their strength in predicting future costs. All coefficients are significant at P<0.01.

†The results for a total of 38 separate age and sex groups are shown in web extra table A on bmj.com.

‡The results for a total of 157 separate ICD-10 groups are shown in web extra table B on bmj.com.