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NHS is unlikely to return to high levels of funding until 2049

BMJ 2016; 354 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.i4859 (Published 07 September 2016) Cite this as: BMJ 2016;354:i4859
  1. Adrian O’Dowd
  1. London

The record levels of funding enjoyed by the NHS in 2009 might not return until 2049, a health policy expert has told peers.

Several predictions of how much the UK will spend on health and social care as part of its gross domestic product (GDP) have been studied by John Appleby, chief economist for health think tank the Nuffield Trust.

Appleby appeared before the House of Lords NHS sustainability committee for an evidence session held on 6 September for its inquiry into the long term sustainability of the NHS.

Peers asked about the various projected health and social care funding pressures from different models up to 2030.

Appleby said that he had looked at five models—including one from the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) …

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