Record 5 million UK children expected to be living in poverty by 2020

The number of children in the UK trapped in poverty is expected to climb to a record five million by 2020, research by Save the Children suggests.

In its report A Fair Start for Every Child, the charity examines the impact of poverty on the lives of children in the UK, what is driving child poverty and how many children are likely to be affected by poverty in the future.1

Although child poverty levels fell between 1998 and 2004, the report shows that ahead of the financial crisis they stalled. There is a cross party commitment to end child poverty by 2020, but Save the Children’s projections suggest that the number of children living in poverty is actually likely to increase by 1.4 million—a 41% rise on the 3.5 million children living in poverty now. To produce that estimate, Save the Children commissioned economic research consultancy Landman Economics to take existing estimates from the Institute for Fiscal Studies for future child poverty and model the impact of projected future social security cuts, which all three major political parties have committed to.

Save the Children is calling for every child to have access to high quality and affordable childcare, a minimum income guarantee for the families of children under five, and a national mission for all children to be reading well by 11.

For its report, Save the Children also surveyed 4000 parents on a range of incomes. The findings showed that half of low income families had seen their incomes decrease in the past five years, around seven in 10 had found it difficult to meet payments and that more than four in 10 had got into debt as a result.

A triple whammy of years of flat wages, cuts to benefits, and the rising cost of living has made life tough for families and children, the report says. But on top of this, low income families also have to pay a “poverty premium” for many goods and services because of their restricted access to affordable credit and banking services.

Unemployment has fallen among low income families, and two thirds of poor children now live in working families—an increase of 20% since 2003—because the UK now has one of the highest rates of low pay in the developed world.

Between 2007 and 2011, food prices rose by 19% more than the prices of other goods, the report says. Childcare costs have also soared. The cost of a nursery place for a child under two rose by 77% between 2003 and 2013.

Justin Forsyth, chief executive of Save the Children, said, “Millions of children in the UK are being left behind—sentenced to a lifetime of poverty. Far too many of our children are living in cold and damp homes, without healthy food, with parents who can see no end to their situation. If we ignore the rising toll of poverty we are blighting the future of a further 1.4 million children. In one of the world’s richest countries there is simply no excuse.”

He added, “Unless there is a dramatic change of course we’re at risk of writing off the future of millions of British children, giving them an unfair start in life.”

Only a third of the poorest children go on to achieve five good GCSEs, including maths and English, and while 60% of well off families expect their young children to go to university, only one third of parents on low and modest incomes expect their children to do the same.

Save the Children is warning that the Child Poverty Act, which was supported by all parties and enshrined in law the commitment to eradicate child poverty in the UK, is increasingly “window dressing” with no party setting out a viable strategy to achieve it.

Forsyth said: “The current all party commitments to social security cuts in the next Parliament combined with underlying labour market trends and inflation mean no party has a coherent plan to avoid this crisis. Our political class is sleepwalking towards the highest levels of child poverty since records began while promising to eradicate it completely.