Re: Rises in healthcare spending: where will it end?
Appleby’s description of the rise in healthcare costs in recent decades (1) may cause confusion and concern to doctors whose income is stagnant or falling, and to Health Authorities, mired in debt.
His last two paragraphs, concerning the future, will interest those readers who take more than a passing interest in financial matters.
Appleby suggests that even if UK healthcare spending increases to 17% of GDP by 2062,
“ ..that would still leave room for real growth in all non- healthcare areas of the economy”.
Outside the economics profession, few observers can foresee how such “real growth in all non-healthcare areas” can occur, and treble GDP, over the next forty years.
With respect, in recent times, many economists have had trouble seeing around the next corner, or more importantly, seeing the next corner.
An excellent case for envisaging a future of increased well being without continuing economic growth has been made. (2)
His final paragraph suggests that the time to stop the increase in healthcare spending is when we find that “..the extra pound we decide to spend on healthcare produces less than a pound’s worth of benefit “.
Readers who are aware of the European Commission’s estimate in 2008 (3) that adverse reactions kill 197,000 EU citizens annually, at a cost of €79 billion, will wonder if we are not very close to that ‘stop’ point already.
1 BMJ 2012;345:e7127
2 Tim Jackson. Prosperity without Growth. Earthscan, 2009.
3 Lancet. Vol 377 p1915. June 4, 2011.
Competing interests:
Member of Positive Money (www.positivemoney.org.uk) and Green Party.
Rapid Response:
Re: Rises in healthcare spending: where will it end?
Appleby’s description of the rise in healthcare costs in recent decades (1) may cause confusion and concern to doctors whose income is stagnant or falling, and to Health Authorities, mired in debt.
His last two paragraphs, concerning the future, will interest those readers who take more than a passing interest in financial matters.
Appleby suggests that even if UK healthcare spending increases to 17% of GDP by 2062,
“ ..that would still leave room for real growth in all non- healthcare areas of the economy”.
Outside the economics profession, few observers can foresee how such “real growth in all non-healthcare areas” can occur, and treble GDP, over the next forty years.
With respect, in recent times, many economists have had trouble seeing around the next corner, or more importantly, seeing the next corner.
An excellent case for envisaging a future of increased well being without continuing economic growth has been made. (2)
His final paragraph suggests that the time to stop the increase in healthcare spending is when we find that “..the extra pound we decide to spend on healthcare produces less than a pound’s worth of benefit “.
Readers who are aware of the European Commission’s estimate in 2008 (3) that adverse reactions kill 197,000 EU citizens annually, at a cost of €79 billion, will wonder if we are not very close to that ‘stop’ point already.
1 BMJ 2012;345:e7127
2 Tim Jackson. Prosperity without Growth. Earthscan, 2009.
3 Lancet. Vol 377 p1915. June 4, 2011.
Competing interests: Member of Positive Money (www.positivemoney.org.uk) and Green Party.