The effectiveness and cost effectiveness of dark chocolate consumption as prevention therapy in people at high risk of cardiovascular disease: best case scenario analysis using a Markov model

BMJ 2012; 344 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.e3657 (Published 31 May 2012)
Cite this as: BMJ 2012;344:e3657

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Dr Mann's contribution leaves one with the impression that: i) Theobroma is an aphrodisiac, and ii) the gods of the pre-Christian Latin speakers were known to be partial to this "food of the gods".

I enjoy cocoa as well as chocolate and never noticed any aphrodisiac effects in my eighty years. The scientific name - Theobroma - was bestowed upon the species by the Swede Linnaeus who had no doubt heard that the TRUE, Pre-Columbian Americans considered their Theobroma cacao preparations, made according to their traditional methods, to be fit for their gods. I have not yet come across any European foods or drinks that might replicate the ancient American methods.

JK Anand

Competing interests: Life-long user of Theobroma cacao products.

JK Anand, Retired doctor

free spirit, 3 Wayford Close, Peterborough (England)

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"Dark chocolate", also called "plain chocolate" or "black chocolate", contains fat, sugar and minimum of 35% solid cocoa with no or very little milk. Dark Chocolate can be eaten as such or those with 70 – 99% of solid cocoa can be used in cooking. Couverture (semisweet and bitter dark chocolates) contains half and less than third as much sugar as cocoa respectively. [1]

Cocao beans contain two main health beneficial substances. They are polyphenols including flavonoids and tannins. Flavonoids are anti-oxidants, exhibit antihypertensive, anti-inflammatory, antithrombotic and metabolic effects. [2] Tannins interfere with action of bacteria on teeth and decrease the chances of dental cavities. [3]

Swedish Mammography Cohort Prospective cohort study of 31 823 women aged 48 to 83 years without baseline diabetes or a history of HF or myocardial infarction has shown that regular intake of dark chocolate decreased the rate of heart hospitalization or death. But this protective association was not observed with intake of ≥1 servings of chocolate per day. [4]

Baylor College of Dentistry suggests for few restrictions on consumption of dark chocolates. They are avoiding nibbing of dark chocolate all the day, limiting chocolate consumption to once or maximum of twice a day, consuming chocolate in moderation .i.e. one ounce of dark chocolate and brushing the teeth afterwards. Observing these precautions may help the population to harvest the beneficial effect of dark chocolate with very minimal adverse events if at all any. [3]

Prescribing dark chocolate may be beneficial public health measure. However, we need to simultaneously establish food hygiene by experimenting with suitable substitution of snacks and ascertain optimal quantity, frequency of dark chocolate consumption so as to keep the incidence of unwanted effects low.

References:
1. EUR-Lex Access to European Union law - ID celex 32000L0036: Directive 2000/36/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 June 2000 relating to cocoa and chocolate products intended for human consumption [online], 2000. Belgium. Europa. Available from http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:32000L0036:E.... Accessed on 18 June 2012.
2. Lippi G, Franchini M, Montagnana M, Favaloro EJ, Guidi GC, Targher G. Dark chocolate: consumption for pleasure or therapy? J Thromb Thrombolysis. 2009 Nov;28(4):482-8.
3. HSC-BCD News Releases: Chocolate may be good for your teeth [online], February 2009. Dallas, Texas. Texas A & M Health Science Center – Baylor college of Dentistry. Available from http://www.bcd.tamhsc.edu/newsevents/newsreleases/chocolate.html. Accessed on 18 June 2012
4. E Mostofsky, E B Levitan, A Wolk,, M A Mittleman. Chocolate Intake and Incidence of Heart Failure: A Population-Based Prospective Study of Middle-Aged and Elderly Women. Circulation: Heart Failure. 2010; 3: 612-616

Competing interests: None declared

Ramaiah Vinay Kumar, Radiation Oncologist

Suman Bhasker

All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Ansarinagar, New Delhi - 110029

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Everyone loves chocolate. The Latin name for chocolate is Theobroma, which means food of the gods. Apparently, even the gods love chocolate. We love chocolate, because it helps us to love and feel loved, which is why it's a favorite gift for Valentine's Day. But chocolate's connection with love is illusory. In reality, chocolate is an addictive stimulant-aphrodisiac that tricks and traps us by creating the fleeting euphoria of love, but the sustained sickness of loneliness. The euphoria of love and the sickness of loneliness are polar opposites that reinforce each other: the euphoria blinds us to the sickness, and the sickness makes us crave the euphoria. Ironically, our beloved chocolate creates, aggravates, and perpetuates the very sickness of insatiable loneliness and longing that it seems to cure.

Competing interests: None declared

Hugh Mann, Physician

Retired, Eagle Rock, MO, USA

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The consumption of chocolate beyond its role as a “pharmacological” agent appears to be influenced by psychological factors. It is now known that people who tend to score greater on depression scales consume significantly greater amount of chocolate than those without depression1. Thus, in contrast to the traditional drugs (which are aimed to reduce morbidity and mortality), chocolate use is influenced by the mood and other psychological factors of the patients. Hence, the authors might have over-estimated the $A40 (£25; €31; $42) cost attributed in reducing the cardiovascular events.

The Framingham algorithms were used to estimate the baseline risk of myocardial infarction and stroke (non-fatal cardiovascular events) as well as cardiovascular death2. The Framingham heart study enrolled healthy population in comparison with the present study where population with metabolic syndrome was studied. Hence, that algorithm might have under-estimated the cardiovascular events in people with metabolic syndrome.

We therefore believe that the use of dark chocolate for primary prevention of cardiovascular events may actually be more efficacious and cost-effective than that predicted in this study.

References:
1. Rose N, Koperski S, Golomb BA. Mood food: chocolate and depressive symptoms in a cross-sectional analysis. Arch Intern Med. 2010 Apr 26;170(8):699-703.
2. Anderson KM, Odell PM, Wilson PW, Kannel WB. Cardiovascular disease risk profiles. Am Heart J. 1991 Jan;121(1 Pt 2):293-8.

Competing interests: None declared

Haris Riaz, Medical Intern

Talha Riaz, Amin A. Kapadia

Department of Medicine, Civil Hospital Karachi, Pakistan, Baba-e-urdu Road, Karachi

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Zomer et al. (1) developed a model of longterm and cost effectiveness of daily dark chocolate consumption in a population with metabolic syndrome, with high risk of cardiovascular disease, using a Markov model and concluded that there were beneficial effects in the prevention of cardiovascular events in the population studied. This model compares two strategies: no dark chocolate (control) vs dark chocolate. The work was rigorously planned using population subject data, defined parameters, controlled changes and a statistical study. It also assumed that effects are not due to chocolate by itself, but to polyphenols, specifically flavonoids.

Different intake levels of many substances called bioactives or biofactors, such as polyphenols, in habitual diets may underlie the discriminate variable expressed tendencies on Markov models and overlapping results. This effect can contribute to distinct trends and affects subjects differently, according to the possible effects of these substances in their diet. These bioactive substances are not foreign within food and can influence metabolism but not as nutrients. All these factors depend on dietary habits and could be expressed differently.

This study to try to specify effects: polyphenols without considering the diet as a whole, relate to changes in blood parameters. This means ignoring underlying variables that could change the interpretation of the results both quantitatively and qualitatively. i.e. a great lack in the diet would be offset by input which gives the baseline risk or a high level in the diet with a lack or non-intervention of such substances.

The blood parameters adjusted for in the classification, but not the dietary habits, could interfere and hence may not allow the extra contribution of chocolate to be addressed.

Literature

Zomer E, Owen A, Magliano DJ, Liew D, Reid CM. The effectiveness and cost effectiveness of dark chocolate consumption as prevention therapy in people at high risk of cardiovascular disease: best case scenario analysis using a Markov modelBMJ 2012; 344 doi: 10.1136/bmj.e3657 (Published 31 May 2012) Cite this as: BMJ 2012;344:e3657

Joyanes M & Lema L. Criteria for optimizing the food composition tables in relation to studies of habitual food intakes. Crit Rev Food & Nutr Sci. Vol 46, Number 4, June 2006:329-336(8)

Competing interests: None declared

María G. Joyanes, Facultativo Especialista

Government Agency, CNA-AESAN. Carretera Majadahonda-Pozuelo, s/n. 28220-Majadahonda (Madrid) Spain

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The authors list $42 as a pure cost. However, unlike medications which provide no benefit to patients beyond the hoped for reduction in non-fatal and fatal events, consumption of dark chocolate has intrinsic value to most patients. As a result, the cost attributed to the prevention strategy is too high and dark chocolate consumption should be even more cost effective than predicted by the authors.

Competing interests: None declared

Katriel Reichman, PhD candidate in health economics

Braun School of Public Health, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Hadassah Medical Organization, 17 Shevet Binyamin Street

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In the article is used an especially interesting probabilistic analysis because the study subjects were selected to participate in the study of origin (Australian Diabetes Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study) for the same reason for which the data are processed in the probabilistic analysis, so there is no selection bias that usually confuses this kind of study. Considering the effort that was made to process the data of individual patients, it would be appropriate to list the real rates of complications in the 2013 patients in the original study (control group), and to indicate the number of these patients that, according to the probabilistic analysis, were in each of the 4 "health states" at the end of the study (trial group), in order to calculate the NNT; probably the data are in table 4, which is cited in the text but not published.

Competing interests: None declared

Danilo Orlandini, Physician, EBM practitioner

Clinical Governance Documentation Centre of the HealthCare Trusts of the Province of Reggio Emilia – HealthCare Library ITALY, via Murri 9, 42123 Reggio Emilia Italy

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In an era where we constantly here about the rising numbers of obese children and adults, as well as increasing consumption of high calorie food (which any form of chocolate), I fear this study will merely grab headlines for doctors encouraging the public to eat more. The authors acknowledge themselves that there are some assumptions made about the benefits of 100grams of chocolate to the health of individuals over 10 years, but in addition, one has to question the practicalities of this recommendation to a large proportion of the public that this would affect.

Many high risk patients come from low socio-economic groups. The cost of 100grams of dark chocolate would be substantial over the course of a year. Add to this the fact that most dark chocolate is produced by the more high quality end of the chocolate industry and a typical bar costs well over £1.50 and sometime £2. Some patients would only be spending just over this much on a whole days worth of food.

In addition, the study did not look at the practicalities of substituting the rest of the daily diet for this 100g consumption. In reality, if the 100grams is palatable the majority are going to add this to the diet, not substitute it. The study, far from solving some of our obesity and cardiovascular time bombs, seems to be adding to the weight of these problems on the health profession.

Competing interests: None declared

David G Samuel, CT2 Gastroenterology

Prince Charles Hospital, Merthyr Tydfil CF47 9DT

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Apologies! My mistake for not reading what you do say, "The $A40 per person per year could be devoted to advertising, educational campaigns...." Best wishes.

Competing interests: None declared

Susan G Lesch, retired

none, San Diego, CA, USA

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Hello,

Nice as it would be, 100 grams of dark chocolate per day for the cost of US $42 per year is not possible. Can you please restate the amount of chocolate you are recommending? Currently 100 grams would retail for closer to US $1000 per year.

Thank you,
Susan Lesch

Competing interests: None declared

Susan G Lesch, retired

none, San Diego, CA, USA

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