Primary analysis
We examined the overall and sex specific prevalence of β human papillomavirus antibody positivity according to skin cancer risk factors. We then calculated the odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for squamous cell carcinoma and basal cell carcinoma associated with seropositivity to β human papillomavirus types (overall and by individual types). On the basis of earlier work,6 10 19 we examined seropositivity to multiple types (1, 2-3, 4-8, and >8 β types positive compared with seronegative to all β types) and calculated a P value for trend based both on these categories and on a continuous variable of the number of types positive. We tested for deviation from linearity by adding polynominals (for example, a quadratic term) to the models and by examining the plot of a general additive model with loess smoothing (S-Plus 8.0, TIBCO Software). Additionally, we evaluated each genus β species: β1 (human papillomavirus 5, 8, 20, 24, and 36), β2 (HPV 9, 15, 17, 23, 38, and 107), β3 (HPV 49, 75, and 76), β4 (HPV 92), and β5 (HPV 96).2 In each of these analyses, we used unconditional logistic regression, taking into account multiple confounding factors.21 Possible covariates included age, level of education (less than college, college, graduate/professional school), smoking status (never, current, former), skin sensitivity to the sun (severe sunburn with blistering, painful sunburn, mild sunburn with some tanning, and tanning with no sunburn), lifetime number of painful sunburns (0, 1-2, ≥3), and oral glucocorticoid use (no, yes, and reason for use).
We classified cases according to their status as of the date of their first skin cancer diagnosed during the study period and controls as of their reference date. Classification of participants according to this plan results in relative risks estimates of incidence density ratios.22 As a sensitivity analysis, we did analyses restricted to participants who had had no previous skin cancers to assess whether the risk estimates differed from those obtained for all participants. Additionally, we did analyses of squamous cell carcinoma excluding people who had a concomitant basal cell carcinoma (n=58; 6.7% of cases). All risk estimates ultimately were adjusted for or stratified by age, sex, and sun sensitivity, and additionally for cigarette smoking for cases of squamous cell carcinoma. No other factors appreciably influenced the results. We designed our study to ensure at least 80% power with an α of 0.05 to detect odds ratios smaller than 2. For example, with an α of 0.05, 80% power, and an approximate sample size of 670 squamous cell carcinoma cases (the smaller case group) and 810 controls, our minimum detectable odds ratio calculated using conservative prevalence estimates (that is, lower than actually observed) was 1.4 for a prevalence of 20% for β human papillomavirus seropositivity and 1.6 for a prevalence of 10% of multiple types positive.
Secondary analyses
We calculated the odds ratios for basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma tumours separately in comparison with controls and by anatomical sites with chronic sunlight exposure (head and neck) versus other sites, as well as separately by specific site of occurrence (for example, head and neck, upper limbs, trunk, and lower limbs). We further examined subgroups of squamous cell carcinoma tumours according to the presence of adjacent actinic keratoses (yes, no). We assessed the potential modifying effects of exposure to ultraviolet light by examining odds ratios stratified by skin reaction to the sun (both in the original four categories and dichotomised) and by lifetime number of painful sunburns (0, 1-2, 3-9, ≥10). As human papillomaviruses have been related largely to skin cancers occurring in immunosuppressed populations, we further considered the possibility that any associations might be stronger among people with a history of prolonged use of oral glucocorticoids for reasons other than organ transplantation. In these stratified analyses, we classified participants as users if they reported using glucocorticoids for one month or longer (yes, no) and excluded those who reported having had an organ transplant.
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