Predictions that missed the mark

Before the arrival of novel A/H1N1 virus, pandemics were said to occur when a new subtype of influenza virus to which humans have no immunity enters the population, begins spreading widely, and causes severe illness.1 2 Reference was often made to the catastrophic pandemic of 1918 and the ongoing threat of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 that has killed over half of the 456 people with recorded infection since 1997. Without proper preparation, “The loss of human life even in a mild pandemic will be devastating, and the cost of a world economy in shambles for several years can only be imagined,” one highly cited article concluded in 2005.3 The large sums of public money spent on pandemic preparedness (over $7bn (£4bn; €5bn) in the US) underlined the seriousness of the threat, and often repeated phrases such as “not a question of IF a pandemic will happen, but …