- Say-Beng Tan (ctetsb@nccs.com.sg), senior biostatistician1,
- Keith B G Dear, senior fellow2,
- Paolo Bruzzi, head3,
- David Machin, professor4
- 1Division of Clinical Trials and Epidemiological Sciences, National Cancer Centre, 11 Hospital Drive, Singapore 169610
- 2National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
- 3Unit of Clinical Epidemiology and Trials, National Cancer Research Institute, Genoa, Italy
- 4United Kingdom Children's Cancer Study Group, University of Leicester, Leicester
- Correspondence to: S-B Tan
- Accepted 30 May 2003
Proving that a new treatment is more effective than current treatment can be difficult for rare conditions. Data from small randomised trials could, however, be made more robust by taking other related research into account
The need for randomised trials to establish that treatments are effective is well established. However, because the effects of new treatments are usually modest compared with standard treatment, large numbers of patients are needed to detect any genuine benefits. This means that, even for common cancers, studies often have to be multicentred to ensure enough patients are recruited in a reasonable time. The strategy for testing new treatments in rare cancers, where it is impossible to accrue large number of patients, is unclear. We extend Lilford and others' proposal that a bayesian statistical approach, using related information from earlier studies, would be useful in designing and subsequently summarising small randomised controlled trials.1 We suggest a scoring system for pooling this evidence and detail how this may be combined with hypothetical scenarios to assist in the design of, and justification for, a small randomised controlled trial.
Problems of small trials
Randomised controlled trials are regarded as the standard when comparing a new treatment with the standard treatment for a particular cancer. However, to be considered clinically worth while in clinical trials, these (essentially) very toxic regimens typically need to show relative reductions in the risk of death of 20-30%. For studies to have sufficient statistical power (≥80%) to detect treatment effects of this magnitude, several hundreds of deaths (typically 200 to 500) need to be observed. This implies trial sizes that are unrealistically large for rare cancers. Furthermore, even if a much larger treatment effect could be expected, estimates derived from the resulting (small) randomised controlled trial would lack the precision needed for clinical decisions.
Thus, investigators who wish …
Sign in
Article access
Article access for 1 day
Purchase this article for £20 $30 €32*
The PDF version can be downloaded as your personal record







CiteULike
Connotea
Del.icio.us
Digg
Facebook
Mendeley
Reddit
Technorati
Twitter
Stumbleupon
Rapid responses
Latest Responses
Re: Ventilator associated pneumonia
Published 30 May 2012
Re: Restless legs syndrome
Published 30 May 2012
Author's reply
Published 30 May 2012
Re: Full access to trial data holds many benefits and a few pitfalls, conference hears
Published 30 May 2012
Restless Legs Syndrome: Fact or Fiction
Published 30 May 2012
Most responses
Venous thrombosis in users of non-oral hormonal contraception: follow-up study, Denmark 2001-10 (12 responses)
Published 10 May 2012 - 23:32
The psychiatric oligarchs who medicalise normality (9 responses)
Published 2 May 2012 - 15:42
Are doctors justified in taking industrial action in defence of their pensions? No (8 responses)
Published 8 May 2012 - 12:21
Are doctors justified in taking industrial action in defence of their pensions? Yes (8 responses)
Published 8 May 2012 - 12:21
The hardest thing: admitting error (7 responses)
Published 2 May 2012 - 12:27