Analysis of predicted coronary heart disease risk in England based on Framingham study risk appraisal models published in 1991 and 2000
BMJ 2002; 325 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.325.7357.194 (Published 27 July 2002) Cite this as: BMJ 2002;325:194
- Kiran Nanchahal, lecturer in medical statistics (kiran.nanchahal@lshtm.ac.uk)a,
- ohn R Duncan, statisticianb,
- Paul N Durrington, professor of medicinec,
- Rodney T Jackson, professor of epidemiologyd
- aHealth Promotion Research Unit, Department of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT
- bGlaxoSmithKline, New Frontiers Science Park, Third Avenue, Harlow CM19 5AW
- cClinical Research Division II, University Medical Unit, Manchester Royal Infirmary, Manchester M13 9WL
- dFaculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, Grafton Mews, 52-54 Grafton Road, Auckland, New Zealand
- Correspondence to: Kiran Nanchahal
- Accepted 13 April 2002
In 2000 the UK government launched the national service framework for coronary heart disease, setting national standards for improving prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. In agreement with recent recommendations on preventing coronary heart disease1 and managing hypertension,2 this programme includes use of coronary risk appraisal models from the Framingham study published in 19913 to help identify patients eligible for drug treatment. These models were updated in 2000,4 incorporating further follow up and additional risk factors. We compare the predicted risks calculated using the two models and assess the implications for preventing heart disease.
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Number of participants and mean (SD) risk in four year predicted risk categories based on coronary heart disease risk appraisal models from the Framingham study published in 19913 and 20004
Methods and results
The health survey for England is an annual, nationwide, household based, cross sectional surveyof a …