Career Focus


BMJ 1998; 317 doi: (Published 22 August 1998) Cite this as: BMJ 1998;317:S3a-7157

Managed care is predicted to have deep effects on the medical workforce in the United States: a potential oversupply of around 200,000 physicians is predicted by the year 2000. A recent cluster of articles in JAMA (1998;279:1398-1403) says that optimum physician numbers in a managed care system are between 145 and 185 per 100,000 population; the current US average is 200 per 100,000, though this remarkable figure conceals considerable shortages in inner city and rural areas. So will these doctors all be driving yellow cabs? Not likely. The upbeat prediction is that the expanding bioinformatics and biotechnology industries will absorb enormous numbers of medical graduates and redundant specialists.

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