What is the prior probability of a proposed new treatment being superior to established treatments?BMJ 1997; 314 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.314.7073.74a (Published 04 January 1997) Cite this as: BMJ 1997;314:74
- Iain Chalmers, Directora
- a UK Cochrane Centre, NHS Research and Development Programme, Oxford OX2 7LG
Editor–Terence Stephenson and David A Walker ask whether parents and children who are considering participating in a clinical trial of a new treatment for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia should be made aware that “for the past decade the new experimental treatments [studied in randomised trials] have given better outcomes.”1 In other words, hunches based on non-randomised evidence about which developments …
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