Life expectancy in men who have never smoked and those who have smoked continuously: 15 year follow up of large cohort of middle aged British men
BMJ 1996; 313 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.313.7062.907 (Published 12 October 1996) Cite this as: BMJ 1996;313:907
- Andrew N Phillips, reader in epidemiology and biostatisticsa,
- S Goya Wannamethee, British Heart Foundation research fellowa,
- Mary Walker, research administratora,
- Andy Thomson, computer programmera,
- George Davey Smith, professor of clinical epidemiologyb
- a Department of Primary Care and Population Sciences, Royal Free Hospital School of Medicine, London NW3 2PF,
- b Department of Social Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol
- Correspondence to: Dr Phillips.
- Accepted 29 July 1996
Abstract
Objective: To estimate the life expectancy in a representative sample of men who have never smoked and of those who have smoked all their adult lives.
Design: 15 year follow up of a large representative cohort of British men in the British regional heart study and use of national mortality statistics for 1992.
Subjects: 7735 middle aged British men aged 40–59 at the time of screening (between 1978 and 1980).
Main outcome measures: Mortality from all causes and from smoking related causes.
Results: 1624 men had never smoked at the time of screening and did not take up smoking during the study. 127 of them died during follow up. 3151 men began smoking before they were 30 and were still smoking at the time of screening. Of these, 751 had stopped smoking five years after screening; they were excluded from the analysis five years after the date they had stopped. 560 of the lifelong smokers died during follow up. When study estimates were combined with those from national mortality statistics for men aged 20–40, only an estimated 42% (95% confidence interval 36% to 50%) of lifelong smokers alive at the age of 20 would be alive at 73, compared with 78% (74% to 82%) of lifelong non-smokers.
Conclusion: These estimates present the effects of smoking on mortality in a way that is easily communicated to patients and the general public in health promotion initiatives.
Key messages
Estimates of life expectancy according to smoking habits have not previously been available for a representative sample of British men
Men who never smoke have a 78% chance of reaching 73; those who start smoking by the age of 20 and never stop have a 42% chance
These estimates are simple and understandable to patients and the general public
Stopping smoking should lead to sizeable reductions in the risk of early death
Footnotes
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Funding The British regional heart study is a research group of the British Heart Foundation and is also supported by the Stroke Association.
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Conflict of interest None.
- Accepted 29 July 1996