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Changes in long term prognosis for breast cancer in a Dutch cancer registry

BMJ 1994; 309 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.309.6947.83 (Published 09 July 1994) Cite this as: BMJ 1994;309:83
  1. Henk W Nab, epidemiologista,
  2. Wim C J Hop, biostatisticiana,
  3. Mariad A Crommelin, radiotherapista,
  4. Huub M Kluck, surgeon Comprehensive Cancer Centre South, 5600 AE Eindhovena,
  5. Louis H van der Heijden, information scientista,
  6. Jan-Willem W Coebergh, epidemiologist Regional Breast Cancer Study Group, Comprehensive Cancer Centre South, PO Box 231, 5600 AE Eindhoven, Netherlandsa
  1. a Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Erasmus University Medical School, PO Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands
  1. Correspondence to: Dr H W Nab, Comprehensive Cancer Centre South, PO Box 231, 5600 AE Eindhoven, Netherlands.
  • Accepted 18 April 1994

Abstract

Objectives: To assess whether the long term survival of patients with breast cancer has changed with time.

Design: Population based descriptive study.

Setting: Eindhoven Cancer Registry in south east Netherlands. Subjects—2052 patients with first primary breast cancer diagnosed between 1955 and 1974.

Main outcome measures: Overall survival and relative survival.

Results: Overall survival was 35% (727 patients) after 10 years, 21% (267) after 20 years, and 15% (25) after 30 years. The corresponding relative survival rates were 43%, 34%, and 34%, respectively. Survival improved from 1955 onwards for all ages and all tumour stages. Improvement was observed in both overall and relative survival. Prognosis was strongly related to the stage at diagnosis in the first 10 years of follow up but independent of stage after 10 years. Survival of patients still alive after 19 years became similar to that of the general female population.

Conclusions: Both short and long term survival improved considerably in all age groups. This improvement was most marked for patients who were diagnosed with a localised tumour. Patients who survive for 19 years may be considered cured.

Footnotes

  • Accepted 18 April 1994
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