Research Article

Clinical findings, early endoscopy, and multivariate analysis in patients bleeding from the upper gastrointestinal tract.

BMJ 1977; 2 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.2.6081.237 (Published 23 July 1977) Cite this as: BMJ 1977;2:237
  1. A G Morgan,
  2. W A McAdam,
  3. G L Walmsley,
  4. A Jessop,
  5. J C Horrocks,
  6. F T de Dombal

    Abstract

    A simple system has been developed to identify patients with upper gastrointestinal tract haemorrhage who run a high risk of continued bleeding or rebleeding. The system is based on six items of patient data available at or soon after arrival in hospital. It was evaluated in a prospective study of 66 patients with upper gastrointestinal tract haemorrhage. Over half of the patients classified by the system into a high-risk category either continued bleeding or rebled after apparent cessation (as against one out of 33 patients in the low-risk category). The high-rish group also had a higher mortality (21%) than those in the low-risk group (nil). The addition or subtraction of early endoscopic findings made little difference to the accuracy of prognosis.