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Is this a true figure of violent war death in the world?
- Dewan S. Billal Ph.D, Assistnt Professor Muneki Hotomi, MD, Professor Noboru Yamanaka MD (24 June 2008)
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Inconsistent Comparisons and Unsound Conclusions
- Michael Spagat (3 July 2008)
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Dewan S. Billal Ph.D, Postdoctoral Fellow Department of Otolaryngology, Wakayama Medical University, 811-1 Kimiidera, Wakayama 641-8509, Japan, Assistnt Professor Muneki Hotomi, MD, Professor Noboru Yamanaka MD
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The study by Obermeyer and colleagues1 reported that the war leading up to the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971 killed 269,000 people- nearly five times the number previously estimated (58,000 people). The authors have concluded that Uppsala/PRIO database has consistently underestimated casualty figures in the world. Information from the Uppsala/PRIO database, produced by collaboration between Uppsala University in Sweden and the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, Norway, has suggested that 58,000 people died in the secessionist conflict caused when the Pakistan Army was ordered by the country`s military ruler, General Yahya Khan, to crack down on dissidents in East Pakistan. While no historian would treat the 58,000 figure for Bangladesh seriously, even the revised figure of 269,000 given in the article will be considered an underestimate by many1. There are many sources that put the true figure at anywhere between one and three million. Death By Government, a much quoted book by political scientist, R.J. Rummel2, says that gthe human death toll over only 267 days was incredible. Just to give for five out of the eighteen districts some incomplete statistics published in Bangladesh newspapers or by an Inquiry Committee, the Pakistani army killed 100,000 Bengalis in Dacca, 150,000 in Khulna, 75,000 in Jessore, 95,000 in Comilla, and 100,000 in Chittagong. For eighteen districts the total is 1,247,000 killedh although there are 64 districts in Bangladesh2. Rummell2 goes on: gthis was an incomplete toll, and to this day no one really knows the final toll. Some estimates are much lower - one is of 300,000 dead - but most range from 1 million to 3 million.h The authors concluded that based on house to house surveys, between 1955 and 2002 an estimated 5.4 million violent war deaths occurred in 13 countries, ranging from 7000 in the Democratic Republic of Congo to 3.8 million in Vietnam. In conclusion, the estimated deaths will be 5-10 times higher than those of the currently reported violent war deaths in the world such as Bangladesh. The household data should consider all the regions in the survey country rather than a specific site to represent the actual magnitude of death due to war violent. Note: Dewan S. Billal is supported by Japan Society for Promotion of Science (JSPS). We declare that we have no conflict of interest *Dewan Sakhawat Billal Ph.D Muneki Hotomi MD, Ph.D Noboru Yamanaka MD, Ph.D billalds@wakayama-med.ac.jp Division of Infection and Immunity research Center, Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Wakayama Medical University, 811-1 Kimiidera, Wakayama 641-8509, Japan. References 1. Obermeyer Z, Murray CJL, Gakidou E. Fifty years of violent deaths related to war from Vietnam to Bosnia: analysis of data from world health survey programme. BMJ 2008 doi: 10.1136/bmj.a137. 2. Rummel RJ. Death by government, New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 1994. Competing interests: None declared |
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Michael Spagat, Professor of Economics Department of Economics, Royal Holloway College, University of London, Egham Surrey TW20 0EX, UK
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Obermeyer and colleaques1 compare their estimate of 5,393,000 war deaths in 13 countries, 1955-2002, with a PRIO battle-death figure of 2,784,000, a ratio of 1.9 war deaths per battle death, and claim that PRIO data “indicated a figure of only a third” of their own estimate.2 The 3.0 that appears in Table 3 turns out to be an unweighted average of the 13 ratios of the Obermeyer estimates to the PRIO figures: one for each country. Thus, Georgia with 0.6% of the estimated war deaths and a ratio of 12.0 gets the same weight as Vietnam, with 71% of the war deaths and a ratio of 1.8. Without Georgia the mean ratio falls to 2.2, close to the weighted average of 1.9 as well as to the median of the 13 ratios (2.1). The authors also conclude that “there is no evidence to support a recent decline in war deaths.” They base this claim on an extrapolation from 13 data points. Their regression equation is completely dominated by the huge Vietnam point. The equation is: Estimated War Deaths = 27,380 + 1.81*(PRIO Battle Deaths) The estimated constant in this relationship, 27,380, is far from statistical significance. All PRIO figures, 1955–94, are then passed through this equation, including the insignificant constant without which the PRIO trends would have been preserved exactly. In fact, Obermeyer et al.’s own data show a clear decline in war deaths over time. Had they included the Korean War and the two world wars, as did Lacina, Gleditsch & Russett (2006)3, the decline would have been even more evident. 1 Obermeyer Z, Murray CJL, Gakidou E. Fifty years of violent deaths related to war from Vietnam to Bosnia: analysis of data from world health survey programme. BMJ 2008 doi: 10.1136/bmj.a137. 2 This is an “apples versus oranges” comparison since the category of “battle deaths” is substantially narrower than the category of “war deaths”. By PRIO’s definition, battle deaths can only occur during contested combat incidents involving two opposing sides, one of which must be a State. War deaths include many additional types of incidents including massacres and inter-ethnic violence. 3 Lacina B., Gleditsch NP, Russett B. The declining risk of death in battle. Int Stud Q 2006; 50: 673-80. Competing interests: None declared |
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