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The open problems of China's One-Child Family Policy: men surplus and support of the elders.
- Filippo Festini, Ilaria Lori, Maurizio de Martino, Giovanni Taccetti. (22 August 2006)
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Dwindling ratio in India
- Charu Chanana, New Delhi India-110029 (22 August 2006)
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Filippo Festini, Associate Professor of Sciences of Nursing University of Florence, Department of Paediatrics, Ilaria Lori, Maurizio de Martino, Giovanni Taccetti.
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Editor, The study by Ding and Hesketh (1) shows that finally also political Chinese authorities and researchers recognize a phenomenon which has been clear since long time. The imposition to Chinese women to give birth to no more than one child has determined a fast reduction of the countriy's fertility rate. This reduction, in societies where a cultural preference for male children exists, causes an alteration in sex ratio (SR), as other countries' experiences show, in which the reduced fertility rate was determined not by regulations but by other social or economic factors (2- 4). A study carried out a few years ago on an entire population of Chinese children born overseas to recent Chinese immigrant couples had shown that the cause of the altered SR in China motherland was the One-Child Family Policy (OCFP) (5). Immigrant Chinese women, indeed, had full freedom in reproductive choices, full assistance during pregnancy, free ultrasound check and free abortion choice with no costs for them, but SR during a ten year period resulted normal. It is important that Chinese authorities are gathering data about some of the phenomenon that OCFP has determined. However they should also commit themselves to examine two major consequences of OCFP. The first one is that the abnormal sex ratio at birth means that an alarmingly high number of men -it has been hypothesized, 1 million per year (6)- will not have a female partner in the next years. Chinese researchers and the government should focus their attention on the possible socially disruptive consequences of this phenomenon, which does not have precedents in human history -on the opposite, a surplus of women was reported after long periods of war. Western researchers who studied this phenomenon hypothesized that this might represent a risk for internal public order but also for international security (7) The second relevant consequence of the fertility rate's drop caused by OCFP is an alarming disparity of numbers between one generation and the next. Like in many other countries, in China too population is quickly aging. The old age dependency ratio (i.e. the ratio of over 65s to the working age population) is increasing (8) and at the half of this century elders will be a quarter of Chinese population. At the same time longevity increases, as does morbidity, and the pension system covers only a small part of the elders, who have, therefore to rely on their relatives' care. The Law of 1979 aimed at a society made up of one-child families but did not plan how the only child, together with his/her spouse, would support up to four parents, eight grand-parents -and an only child. The social consequences of this potentially disproportionate burden for young Chinese families deserves the attention of Chinese researchers. The OCFP loosened the demographic pressure on China but created new relevant problems which involve society and public health and which have not been sufficiently studied. The OCFP has determined a sort of "demographic bonus" for China which helped the country's dramatic economic development:. It is urgent that the resources determined by this bonus are transformed in investments in public health and in an effective pension system. 1- Ding QJ, Hesketh T. Family size, fertility preferences, and sex ratio in China in the era of the one child family policy: results from national family planning and reproductive health survey. BMJ 2006;333: 371 -3 2- Gu B, Roy K. Sex ratio at birth in China, with reference to other areas in East Asia: what we know. Asia Pac Popul J 1995;10:17–42. 3- Jha P, Kumar R, Vasa P, Dhingra N, Thiruchelvam D, Moineddin R.Low female-to-male sex ratio of children born in India: national survey of 1.1 million households. Lancet. 2006;367:211-8. 4- Lee J, Paik M.Sex preferences and fertility in South Korea during the year of the Horse. Demography. 2006;43:269-92. 5- Festini F, Taccetti G, Repetto T, Cioni ML, de Martino M. Sex ratio at birth among Chinese babies born in Italy is lower than in China. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2003;57:967-8. 6- Tuljapurkar S, Li N, Feldman MW.High sex ratios in China's future. Science. 1995;267:874-6. 7- Hudson vM, den Boer AM. Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia's Surplus Male Population. BCSIA Harvard University. 2004. Cambridge 8- Sun F. Ageing of the population in China:trends and implications. Asia Pac Popul J 1998;13:75–92. Competing interests: None declared |
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Charu Chanana, Registrar All India Institute of medical sciences, New Delhi India-110029
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Dwindling ratio in India Dr Charu Chanana, M.D Similar to the Chinese government, the government of India had adopted a policy of two children per couple, which was later modified to the one child norm so as to keep a check on the ever-increasing population. But till date the population is nowhere even near control and the ratio seems to be more and more imbalanced as the time passes. In many villages of the country marriages occurs much before the years for males and 18 years for females that has been set by the law. At least 5 to 6 children are borne by each couple .The general feeling is more kids, more hands, more income. The scenario is not different in cities. Here the total number of children born to a couple may be less but at the cost of female feticide (inspite of a law against prenatal determination). Recently the Indian newspapers had news of many female fetuses being found in a well. It seems still many years before this scenario will change. The only hope towards this seems to be female education because it is rightly said that by educating a man you educate a person but by educating a female you educate an entire family Competing interests: None declared |
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